Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FC Heidenheim win on 2025-10-05?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0b6e01cec812d24a629dd1fe1105b48bbc6dbc463fa7733269875852fef17d07
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,154
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,589
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,154 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Yes | 12c | 4,024$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.91 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 13c | 778.97$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.27 | 150 | 24%36 W · 114 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 9c | 730.75$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.27 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Yes | 12c | 600$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 13c | 482.49$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.72 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Yes | 14c | 443.74$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…625dbacked Yes | 13c | 435.61$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.63 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5adf…a5e7backed Yes | 14c | 400$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 12c | 397.44$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.96 | 101 | 28.7%29 W · 72 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 6c | 291.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 223 | 32.3%72 W · 151 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…4faabacked Yes | 12c | 285.27$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.23 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9f…f4afbacked Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1757…39cebacked Yes | 14c | 150.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…513abacked Yes | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed89…647bbacked Yes | 13c | 129.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 12c | 105.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 243 | 22.2%54 W · 189 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2272…2e9cbacked Yes | 13c | 102.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…c148backed Yes | 11c | 99.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FC Heidenheim win on 2025-10-05?this page
- Will VfB Stuttgart vs. 1. FC Heidenheim end in a draw?No won
- Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2025-10-05?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.