TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2025-10-05?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$35,273
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$37,787

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,273 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7865…4af9backed No30c9,902$2,971 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,970.534524.4%11 W · 34 L-3.5wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-5.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Yes70c8,597$6,052 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,545.483,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d0f…4faabacked No30c6,658$1,997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,997.41136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf2e…ddecbacked Yes70c4,835$3,380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,455.429053.3%48 W · 42 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-15.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No26c2,182$565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$564.962,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ef4…4e4ebacked Yes62c1,388$856 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$532.011947.4%9 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2619…9f4ebacked No29c1,101$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.683243.8%14 W · 18 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-24.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed Yes56c1,039$579 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$459.8955058.7%323 W · 227 L+23.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Yes64c1,016$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$365.6322332.3%72 W · 151 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x55ba…16d1backed Yes69c1,000$690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$310683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.31per pick53cpaid+65.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked No38c961$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365.1814846.6%69 W · 79 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda35…ff0ebacked Yes71c915.49$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.494963.3%31 W · 18 L+5.7wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+25.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Yes69c706.65$488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.0719347.2%91 W · 102 L-0.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-10.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes56c556.25$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.7522669%156 W · 70 L+13.1wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+25.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked No30c500$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1505151%26 W · 25 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2934…0b51backed No30c399.99$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1202536%9 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-24.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xce2b…08fabacked No52c365.38$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19038055.8%212 W · 168 L-0.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71c1…e358backed Yes70c357.14$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.1418840.4%76 W · 112 L+7.9wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb36…9545backed No29c355.48$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.091136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x363c…9b0ebacked Yes70c350$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1052100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+60.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa19…fb67backed No31c339.96$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.391457.1%8 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.15per pick42cpaid+30.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0909…91cabacked Yes71c306.24$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.244369.8%30 W · 13 L+5.5wins+0.13per pick57cpaid+23.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6d01…0ab1backed No30c300$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9011036.4%40 W · 70 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3486…49eebacked Yes70c285.71$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.7119943.2%86 W · 113 L-0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf142…57e7backed No30c260.42$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.1323046.5%107 W · 123 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed No8c221.32$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2828241.5%117 W · 165 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked No38c210.57$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.2223842.9%102 W · 136 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbf6…513abacked No29c185$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$542454.2%13 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x79cc…8026backed Yes71c155.43$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.436350.8%32 W · 31 L-6.1wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-18.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdc4f…bcf4backed Yes67c149.25$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.25988.9%8 W · 1 L+2.6wins+0.29per pick60cpaid+63.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x5f24…c911backed Yes70c142.86$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.86771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick59cpaid+53.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4944…e4c7backed Yes70c142.86$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.861776.5%13 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.11per pick65cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Yes71c140.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.853151.6%16 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed No30c127.4$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.719153.9%103 W · 88 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed No13c119.73$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9951136.8%188 W · 323 L-28.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-24.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3dd4…1b50backed Yes70c115$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.510235.3%36 W · 66 L-9.3wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-36.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd612…0bc1backed Yes70c114.08$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.082263.6%14 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84d9…76dbbacked No31c107.42$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.3933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+19.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedbd…06c9backed Yes58c103.69$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.691580%12 W · 3 L+5.1wins+0.34per pick46cpaid+89.7%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Yes70c100$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308459.5%50 W · 34 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xea9e…d3fbbacked No29c100$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299721.6%21 W · 76 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-24.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xed61…9aa3backed Yes60c96.1$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.4415064%96 W · 54 L+25.0wins+0.17per pick47cpaid+53.3%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0xd724…b805backed No40c96.1$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.44812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.25per pick37cpaid-80.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x308a…95ffbacked No31c90.32$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x686a…db95backed Yes70c86.21$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x189d…147cbacked Yes70c85.71$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.718169.1%56 W · 25 L+5.0wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3fb5…6530backed Yes70c85.71$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.712360.9%14 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x881a…8d6dbacked Yes71c84.51$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.514070%28 W · 12 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick64cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x85d3…0698backed Yes69c72.46$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.462969%20 W · 9 L+4.7wins+0.16per pick53cpaid+30.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4781…336dbacked Yes71c71.66$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.783876.3%29 W · 9 L+4.6wins+0.12per pick64cpaid+17.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc487…dc86backed Yes70c71.43$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.431346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a42…2a7ebacked Yes70c71.43$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.434542.2%19 W · 26 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x340d…1335backed Yes71c70.42$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.423164.5%20 W · 11 L+5.3wins+0.17per pick47cpaid+26.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6dff…bc36backed No29c70$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-46%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc7f7…2abfbacked No30c64.78$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4310128.7%29 W · 72 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3bb8…744cbacked Yes67c60$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x53e8…bf07backed Yes70c57.14$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.142060%12 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+10.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x45a4…5eb3backed Yes70c57.14$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.14887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.26per pick61cpaid+44%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc48d…8a40backed Yes68c50$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162161.9%13 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick58cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9ce…316ebacked Yes69c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.3785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick65cpaid+36.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2272…2e9cbacked Yes66c50$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173828.9%11 W · 27 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-19.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26ae…97b8backed No30c49.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157466.2%49 W · 25 L+5.1wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+12.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1435…0028backed Yes71c42.25$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.253100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+48.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6cc…18cebacked Yes69c36.23$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.231471.4%10 W · 4 L+2.7wins+0.19per pick52cpaid+34.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1889…0714backed No31c35.71$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.077052.9%37 W · 33 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-11.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes70c35.71$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.714751.1%24 W · 23 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb155…07f1backed Yes70c35$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9907…d5f1backed Yes70c34.91$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.471100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x865f…e88ebacked No31c34$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5934342%144 W · 199 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1a0…63b2backed Yes70c28.57$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.57771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick62cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7468…6392backed Yes70c28.57$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.57580%4 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick67cpaid+34.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x963a…fc4cbacked Yes70c28.57$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.572100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+60.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf815…4f3ebacked Yes70c28.36$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.371485.7%12 W · 2 L+3.0wins+0.22per pick64cpaid+35.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7231…8e0ebacked Yes73c27.4$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.42100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+32.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x750d…566bbacked Yes70c24$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.25250%26 W · 26 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ffa…25f9backed Yes68c22.06$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb6b…70fdbacked Yes70c21.43$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.434454.5%24 W · 20 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+12%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x60e3…08a6backed Yes71c21.13$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.13540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-43.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x09af…a39fbacked Yes69c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.2683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.31per pick53cpaid+78.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8082…9bb5backed Yes70c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fdf…256abacked Yes70c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9de…02acbacked Yes71c16.9$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.9250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick75cpaid-29.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.