MLB · resolved market
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0b7457950e26e032ce99b26f9a878a86a1648f0cb6813db3a2991a3780d4fc57
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Milwaukee Brewersof Milwaukee Brewers, Kansas City Royals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,574
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,354
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,574 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe1a2…14b8backed Milwaukee Brewers | 58c | 4,999$2,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,099.66 | 182 | 41.2%75 W · 107 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Milwaukee Brewers | 59c | 3,380$1,994 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,385.93 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Kansas City Royals | 42c | 2,552$1,075 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,074.66 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Milwaukee Brewers | 47c | 1,580$747 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$832.91 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Kansas City Royals | 43c | 1,074$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.47 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Kansas City Royals | 41c | 890.78$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.93 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Kansas City Royals | 41c | 890.78$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.93 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…b891backed Kansas City Royals | 41c | 878.21$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.38 | 157 | 53.5%84 W · 73 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d0…1310backed Kansas City Royals | 41c | 820.03$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.53 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Kansas City Royals | 41c | 693.03$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.8 | 393 | 51.9%204 W · 189 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Kansas City Royals | 67c | 649.73$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.62 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Kansas City Royals | 41c | 632.21$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.87 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Kansas City Royals | 65c | 237.11$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.12 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa42c…b22ebacked Kansas City Royals | 42c | 231.85$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.38 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…1867backed Milwaukee Brewers | 43c | 224.71$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.14 | 293 | 44.7%131 W · 162 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 35c | 192.2$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.93 | 341 | 45.2%154 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Kansas City Royals | 28c | 176$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.28 | 95 | 35.8%34 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…e162backed Milwaukee Brewers | 35c | 171.49$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.47 | 366 | 49.2%180 W · 186 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Milwaukee Brewers | 67c | 127.4$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.22 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Milwaukee Brewers | 33c | 119.4$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Kansas City Royals | 67c | 117.04$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.42 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Kansas City Royals | 49c | 98.92$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.47 | 473 | 45.7%216 W · 257 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Kansas City Royals | 11c | 92.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Milwaukee Brewers | 60c | 92.38$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.59 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7335…dd65backed Kansas City Royals | 42c | 92.15$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Kansas City Royals | 65c | 89$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.43 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ece…068abacked Kansas City Royals | 41c | 78.06$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.11 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked Kansas City Royals | 42c | 55.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 183 | 45.4%83 W · 100 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Milwaukee Brewers | 35c | 53.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.7 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Kansas City Royals | 46c | 43.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee7…4c1abacked Kansas City Royals | 42c | 37.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 92 | 55.4%51 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bec…c707backed Kansas City Royals | 42c | 36.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22e8…8435backed Kansas City Royals | 42c | 36.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Kansas City Royals | 42c | 33.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 344 | 52.6%181 W · 163 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe777…c734backed Kansas City Royals | 44c | 27.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Kansas City Royals | 41c | 24.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 57c | 22.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Kansas City Royals | 68c | 18.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 873 | 52.7%460 W · 413 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)this page
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Kansas City RoyalsMilwaukee Brewers won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5)Kansas City Royals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.