MLB · resolved market
Rays vs. Padres
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0b9d989cd50f1c3e029fca55d59d56d47bedd7c275b04332818391a8cb8ba7ad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Raysof Rays, Padres
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,723
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,664
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,723 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5fc8…39efbacked Padres | 57c | 4,000$2,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,280 | 126 | 55.6%70 W · 56 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Rays | 43c | 3,010$1,287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,722.98 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x698b…4426backed Padres | 57c | 2,860$1,630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,630.2 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8377…4198backed Padres | 59c | 2,421$1,420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,420 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Rays | 41c | 2,410$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,410 | 733 | 52.4%384 W · 349 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Rays | 44c | 2,351$1,039 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,312.46 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Padres | 31c | 1,877$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.07 | 513 | 34.5%177 W · 336 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Padres | 58c | 1,666$966 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$966.28 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Rays | 43c | 1,549$666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$882.97 | 1,151 | 49.2%566 W · 585 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d17…a6f4backed Padres | 1c | 1,407$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa581…45b2backed Padres | 58c | 1,400$812 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$812 | 114 | 63.2%72 W · 42 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Rays | 79c | 1,362$1,075 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.01 | 867 | 51.8%449 W · 418 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Rays | 42c | 1,217$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$705.83 | 958 | 50%479 W · 479 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Rays | 42c | 1,000$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Rays | 42c | 784.57$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.77 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Padres | 4c | 690$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Rays | 42c | 656.41$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.72 | 235 | 45.5%107 W · 128 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Rays | 42c | 508.62$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Rays | 45c | 444.56$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.56 | 917 | 49.9%458 W · 459 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Rays | 56c | 444.43$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.55 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Padres | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1,180 | 7.2%85 W · 1,095 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Padres | 58c | 200$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Padres | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Padres | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Rays | 41c | 119.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.38 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Rays | 57c | 70.17$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.17 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0624…017dbacked Rays | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.82 | 266 | 51.1%136 W · 130 L | -16.0wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4887…179dbacked Padres | 60c | 49.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.95 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf391…73c3backed Rays | 45c | 44.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 295 | 52.2%154 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Padres | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…d681backed Padres | 57c | 24.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 743 | 56.9%423 W · 320 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cc4…24b9backed Rays | 44c | 24.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.66 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +102.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8278…c94fbacked Padres | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.35per pick | 52cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Padres | 57c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…c503backed Padres | 57c | 17.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c4…9da6backed Padres | 57c | 17.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.