CS2 · resolved market
PGL Astana: The MongolZ vs. Natus Vincere
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0c3eb85561da2a291f7106d083beb51da6ff424ab03746970f6185ec9cd016ae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- The MongolZof The MongolZ, NAVI
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,380
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,420
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,380 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed NAVI | 56c | 1,835$1,027 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,027.35 | 1,259 | 42.5%535 W · 724 L | +20.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecf7…ee71backed The MongolZ | 44c | 1,023$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$572.73 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8017…d7debacked NAVI | 57c | 775$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c8e…0824backed The MongolZ | 43c | 710$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4591…d19ebacked The MongolZ | 44c | 318.18$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.18 | 119 | 49.6%59 W · 60 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x476b…8a58backed The MongolZ | 44c | 300$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 420 | 57.1%240 W · 180 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c79…eb42backed NAVI | 57c | 220$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd112…c648backed The MongolZ | 43c | 210$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed The MongolZ | 63c | 178.6$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.75 | 645 | 52.9%341 W · 304 L | +27.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe06c…62aebacked NAVI | 59c | 149.54$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.71 | 99 | 38.4%38 W · 61 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcff8…bea7backed NAVI | 38c | 132.8$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2a…2aaebacked The MongolZ | 54c | 117.36$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.2 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed5…0167backed The MongolZ | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.64 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…fb5dbacked NAVI | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94a1…ec2fbacked The MongolZ | 41c | 98$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.82 | 163 | 57.1%93 W · 70 L | +14.1wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xae2f…6c82backed The MongolZ | 43c | 80$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb950…4dd4backed The MongolZ | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 567 | 38.8%220 W · 347 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed The MongolZ | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 265 | 63%167 W · 98 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb58a…b840backed The MongolZ | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.