CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs ARCRED (BO3) - JB Pro League Season 2 Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0c4ff3862804ae27956c3d67c4c1c314af519e45f33099b7b1b47be2337a52a6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- KOLESIEof KOLESIE, ARCRED
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,737
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,826
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,737 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa097…8795backed ARCRED | 52c | 399.98$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.99 | 173 | 47.4%82 W · 91 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked KOLESIE | 50c | 347.75$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.35 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe524…0efcbacked KOLESIE | 47c | 310$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.3 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e4…2a20backed ARCRED | 52c | 310$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.2 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed KOLESIE | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d2b…effbbacked KOLESIE | 48c | 96.88$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.38 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xced8…221ebacked ARCRED | 49c | 71.89$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.22 | 700 | 38.9%272 W · 428 L | -29.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked ARCRED | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 336 | 57.1%192 W · 144 L | -12.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedaa…89b4backed ARCRED | 49c | 50.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 245 | 35.9%88 W · 157 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0c…d43abacked KOLESIE | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 464 | 47.6%221 W · 243 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e54…f6a8backed KOLESIE | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +5.2wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.