Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Rune Eaters - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0c6b6e80b7983bd49cbf97d6dd65235959234b472d717d9f61d829d379bccac2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rune Eatersof VP.Prodigy, Rune Eaters
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,332
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,332 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc5a…bf71backed VP.Prodigy | 20c | 1,621$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.11 | 466 | 49.8%232 W · 234 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…2a08backed VP.Prodigy | 12c | 1,248$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.87 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed VP.Prodigy | 1c | 1,049$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7756…d00abacked VP.Prodigy | 12c | 600$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 251 | 47.4%119 W · 132 L | +12.3wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2757…55f0backed VP.Prodigy | 28c | 576$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.1 | 124 | 54.8%68 W · 56 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed VP.Prodigy | 16c | 527.1$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.29 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1568…c958backed VP.Prodigy | 49c | 490.76$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec8a…94b3backed VP.Prodigy | 2c | 409.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc49b…a5b8backed Rune Eaters | 59c | 342.58$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.38 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c64…89babacked VP.Prodigy | 26c | 334.78$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.53 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Rune Eaters | 73c | 302$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.66 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked VP.Prodigy | 19c | 294.49$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.35 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe980…57c9backed Rune Eaters | 76c | 257.49$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x860e…a06dbacked Rune Eaters | 48c | 255.95$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.09 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c4…d354backed Rune Eaters | 78c | 185.62$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.89 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +68.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0c…3ccebacked VP.Prodigy | 12c | 166.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed VP.Prodigy | 20c | 161.78$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.75 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00b7…5b93backed VP.Prodigy | 14c | 102.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 88 | 52.3%46 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66ed…d321backed Rune Eaters | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.7 | 340 | 45.9%156 W · 184 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a9…263cbacked VP.Prodigy | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 241 | 37.3%90 W · 151 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9688…fd45backed VP.Prodigy | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 241 | 38.6%93 W · 148 L | -18.0wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed VP.Prodigy | 40c | 90$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +5.1wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x29f8…ffa9backed VP.Prodigy | 40c | 82.7$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.08 | 150 | 33.3%50 W · 100 L | -10.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x368d…d853backed VP.Prodigy | 28c | 75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 615 | 48.8%300 W · 315 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c5e…fa88backed VP.Prodigy | 34c | 70.37$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6312…f94ebacked VP.Prodigy | 31c | 70$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d8…c3f8backed VP.Prodigy | 28c | 58.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeabe…5910backed Rune Eaters | 79c | 57.08$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.17 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.27per pick | 54cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3187…9476backed Rune Eaters | 79c | 57.08$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0386…2b1abacked VP.Prodigy | 33c | 50.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 305 | 43%131 W · 174 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Rune Eaters | 76c | 30.46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | +8.3wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2b5c…ab22backed VP.Prodigy | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefff…2d98backed VP.Prodigy | 56c | 23.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 164 | 45.7%75 W · 89 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Rune Eaters - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - PREMIER SERIES Play-In Group ARune Eaters won
- Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Rune Eaters - Game 2 WinnerRune Eaters won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.