Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Rune Eaters - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa0186f9c11bafee6b1dad66c83298ad8b9aa4016f7e3a263599b3323b66e5b41
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rune Eatersof VP.Prodigy, Rune Eaters
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,150
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,315
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,150 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x688e…148dbacked VP.Prodigy | 67c | 595.65$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x860e…a06dbacked VP.Prodigy | 28c | 549.99$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.5 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Rune Eaters | 43c | 499.99$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.99 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a4…4249backed Rune Eaters | 57c | 390.78$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.31 | 196 | 64.8%127 W · 69 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5a…bf71backed Rune Eaters | 79c | 330.31$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.89 | 466 | 49.8%232 W · 234 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd055…28d0backed VP.Prodigy | 48c | 323.15$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.32 | 265 | 50.6%134 W · 131 L | +12.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a13…0473backed Rune Eaters | 58c | 239.99$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +44%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb79…6274backed Rune Eaters | 70c | 211.14$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.34 | 171 | 52%89 W · 82 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47c6…2fe4backed Rune Eaters | 50c | 203$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.5 | 148 | 49.3%73 W · 75 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x913c…39b3backed Rune Eaters | 58c | 188.08$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.99 | 714 | 54.5%389 W · 325 L | +55.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x469f…3d4fbacked Rune Eaters | 58c | 150$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 235 | 46.8%110 W · 125 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66ed…d321backed VP.Prodigy | 55c | 115.66$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.32 | 340 | 45.9%156 W · 184 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked VP.Prodigy | 56c | 107.38$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.13 | 735 | 54.7%402 W · 333 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e25…db26backed VP.Prodigy | 71c | 106.34$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc2…64d1backed Rune Eaters | 78c | 101.32$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.29 | 110 | 43.6%48 W · 62 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Rune Eaters | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 479 | 51.8%248 W · 231 L | +17.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d24…6564backed VP.Prodigy | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5243…d41abacked VP.Prodigy | 50c | 95.11$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.56 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked VP.Prodigy | 16c | 83.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x368d…d853backed VP.Prodigy | 35c | 73.85$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 615 | 48.8%300 W · 315 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c64…89babacked Rune Eaters | 60c | 73.34$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.34 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3663…a364backed Rune Eaters | 64c | 72.39$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.17 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29f8…ffa9backed VP.Prodigy | 45c | 69.84$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.43 | 150 | 33.3%50 W · 100 L | -10.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked VP.Prodigy | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 154 | 50%77 W · 77 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaea9…42a1backed Rune Eaters | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc6e…d043backed VP.Prodigy | 77c | 60$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0386…2b1abacked Rune Eaters | 59c | 55$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.35 | 305 | 43%131 W · 174 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc75a…1ab2backed Rune Eaters | 33c | 51.24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.33 | 400 | 14.8%59 W · 341 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefff…2d98backed Rune Eaters | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 164 | 45.7%75 W · 89 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed VP.Prodigy | 25c | 44.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed VP.Prodigy | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 410 | 37.3%153 W · 257 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b5c…ab22backed Rune Eaters | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5f…8eadbacked Rune Eaters | 65c | 27.69$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 126 | 55.6%70 W · 56 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b4…17b1backed VP.Prodigy | 54c | 23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 133 | 31.6%42 W · 91 L | -10.9wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Rune Eaters | 53c | 21.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Rune Eaters - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - PREMIER SERIES Play-In Group ARune Eaters won
- Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Rune Eaters - Game 1 WinnerRune Eaters won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.