Europa Conference League · resolved market
FC Lugano vs. MH Maccabi Tel Aviv: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0ca43f49cfb416c1011d978b8e3430403a8165c79fb179e0b5df83099abead49
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,287
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,180
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,287 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x425b…18f1backed Over | 47c | 1,489$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 59c | 1,368$808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560.43 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 43c | 980.95$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$558.48 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 54c | 822.21$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.34 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 39c | 713.66$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.27 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe015…39bbbacked Over | 62c | 403.23$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 48c | 366.52$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.65 | 814 | 40.5%330 W · 484 L | -21.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…3335backed Over | 73c | 356.16$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 81 | 65.4%53 W · 28 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3824…e756backed Under | 55c | 178.73$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.73 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +4.2wins | +0.17per pick | 59cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 34c | 171.69$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.58 | 1,033 | 46.1%476 W · 557 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6b…ec86backed Over | 41c | 117.07$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 38c | 107.33$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.78 | 335 | 22.4%75 W · 260 L | -43.5wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Over | 54c | 105$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.99 | 334 | 46.7%156 W · 178 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd74…bedabacked Over | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 146 | 30.1%44 W · 102 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdeda…8e35backed Under | 55c | 76.78$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.55 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 48cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76e9…e991backed Under | 66c | 70$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 51c | 70$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 146 | 41.1%60 W · 86 L | -14.7wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Under | 55c | 63.3$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.48 | 73 | 64.4%47 W · 26 L | +9.3wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa8eb…0acbbacked Under | 64c | 61.17$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 109 | 48.6%53 W · 56 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 70c | 44.95$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.49 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 49c | 44.34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.71 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Over | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 278 | 46.4%129 W · 149 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 62c | 28.35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 852 | 60.9%519 W · 333 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Under | 70c | 28.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 381 | 44.1%168 W · 213 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Under | 58c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 134 | 67.9%91 W · 43 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Over | 53c | 23.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 389 | 52.7%205 W · 184 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 62c | 22.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 580 | 61.9%359 W · 221 L | +22.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 64c | 20.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 294 | 70.1%206 W · 88 L | +21.6wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfeef…4b1fbacked Under | 68c | 15.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 88 | 69.3%61 W · 27 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Lugano vs. MH Maccabi Tel Aviv: O/U 3.5this page
- FC Lugano vs. MH Maccabi Tel Aviv: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Lugano vs. MH Maccabi Tel Aviv: FC Lugano O/U 0.5Over won
- FC Lugano vs. MH Maccabi Tel Aviv: MH Maccabi Tel Aviv O/U 1.5Under won
- FC Lugano vs. MH Maccabi Tel Aviv: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Lugano vs. MH Maccabi Tel Aviv: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Lugano vs. MH Maccabi Tel Aviv: O/U 4.5Under won
- FC Lugano vs. MH Maccabi Tel Aviv: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: FC Lugano (-1.5)MH Maccabi Tel Aviv won
- Spread: FC Lugano (-2.5)MH Maccabi Tel Aviv won
- Spread: MH Maccabi Tel Aviv (-1.5)FC Lugano won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.