Europa Conference League · resolved market
FC Lugano vs. MH Maccabi Tel Aviv: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xea5b6fa40cb88f714df7cd211048d52c4175531558ba4043b56d02e5a7aa318c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,079
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,551
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,079 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x425b…18f1backed Over | 55c | 3,636$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,636.36 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 38c | 2,290$865 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$864.61 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 45c | 1,526$687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$687.5 | 1,033 | 46.1%476 W · 557 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 48c | 468.54$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.71 | 814 | 40.5%330 W · 484 L | -21.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 52c | 409.94$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.77 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 48c | 396.91$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.49 | 769 | 41.9%322 W · 447 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 49c | 384.41$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.07 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 49c | 372.18$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.24 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf4…d0b2backed Over | 51c | 241.29$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.29 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd74…bedabacked Over | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 146 | 30.1%44 W · 102 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed Under | 51c | 196.47$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.2 | 182 | 52.7%96 W · 86 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a00…9ac7backed Over | 51c | 195.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.33 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaac…d71dbacked Over | 49c | 153.06$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.06 | 144 | 43.8%63 W · 81 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 51c | 150$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.5 | 1,022 | 47.5%485 W · 537 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 51c | 150$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.5 | 1,316 | 50.8%668 W · 648 L | +33.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 46c | 132.34$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.35 | 919 | 50.9%468 W · 451 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Under | 38c | 120$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 73 | 64.4%47 W · 26 L | +9.3wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over | 55c | 115.76$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.96 | 655 | 35.6%233 W · 422 L | -13.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Under | 49c | 111.56$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.06 | 189 | 40.2%76 W · 113 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 48c | 103.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.68 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 661 | 50.5%334 W · 327 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 44c | 97.3$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.81 | 694 | 48.8%339 W · 355 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 52c | 62.59$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.04 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5213…6a35backed Over | 49c | 59.12$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.15 | 147 | 44.9%66 W · 81 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 51c | 54.4$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.69 | 568 | 49.6%282 W · 286 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 48c | 48.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.08 | 116 | 57.8%67 W · 49 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53c8…7f69backed Over | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb305…a400backed Over | 51c | 33.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -5.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 49c | 22.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 254 | 40.6%103 W · 151 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bec…8d52backed Under | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Lugano vs. MH Maccabi Tel Aviv: O/U 2.5this page
- FC Lugano vs. MH Maccabi Tel Aviv: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Lugano vs. MH Maccabi Tel Aviv: FC Lugano O/U 0.5Over won
- FC Lugano vs. MH Maccabi Tel Aviv: MH Maccabi Tel Aviv O/U 1.5Under won
- FC Lugano vs. MH Maccabi Tel Aviv: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Lugano vs. MH Maccabi Tel Aviv: O/U 3.5Under won
- FC Lugano vs. MH Maccabi Tel Aviv: O/U 4.5Under won
- FC Lugano vs. MH Maccabi Tel Aviv: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: FC Lugano (-1.5)MH Maccabi Tel Aviv won
- Spread: FC Lugano (-2.5)MH Maccabi Tel Aviv won
- Spread: MH Maccabi Tel Aviv (-1.5)FC Lugano won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.