South American Leagues · resolved market
Will AA Estudiantes vs. CS Independiente Rivadavia end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0cb173a422b472d31892f3a44909b7581756b0a94f8d8cd7bc4018ab40d9cfb1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,825
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,841
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,825 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 49c | 9,084$4,426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,657.88 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 51c | 8,105$4,113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,112.56 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked No | 64c | 830$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.8 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 51c | 767.51$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.86 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 54c | 581.67$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.12 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c54…7e41backed No | 64c | 559.38$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.38 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…9874backed Yes | 36c | 411.11$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 82 | 28%23 W · 59 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75bd…0288backed Yes | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 286 | 51.7%148 W · 138 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 39c | 400$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 836 | 42.9%359 W · 477 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 36c | 319.18$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.46 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed No | 64c | 240$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.4 | 154 | 59.7%92 W · 62 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e52…9078backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 122 | 39.3%48 W · 74 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0713…dd69backed Yes | 55c | 190$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe343…5c31backed Yes | 14c | 178.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 74 | 24.3%18 W · 56 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3326…2d1ebacked Yes | 33c | 151.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…8aeabacked No | 67c | 146.92$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.16 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Yes | 53c | 120.08$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.41 | 270 | 50.7%137 W · 133 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 849 | 43.8%372 W · 477 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a63…b752backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfed7…e405backed Yes | 34c | 30.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 127 | 50.4%64 W · 63 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 34c | 29.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 817 | 40.8%333 W · 484 L | +20.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AA Estudiantes vs. CS Independiente Rivadavia end in a draw?this page
- Will AA Estudiantes win on 2026-02-09?No won
- Will CS Independiente Rivadavia win on 2026-02-09?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.