South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CS Independiente Rivadavia win on 2026-02-09?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x24c2829b635997483915eb2c2ce216d70e1cfdce7000077ac0d27abc122d6df7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,095
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,563
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,095 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 67c | 4,842$3,256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,256.24 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 33c | 2,599$864 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,735.5 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 67c | 1,386$928 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$927.57 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93c8…adffbacked Yes | 30c | 1,333$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$933.1 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfed7…e405backed Yes | 42c | 985.02$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$571.31 | 127 | 50.4%64 W · 63 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Yes | 33c | 908.42$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$608.64 | 218 | 39.4%86 W · 132 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 58c | 799.1$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.82 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 53c | 585.02$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.86 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 43c | 545.72$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.72 | 1,366 | 52.4%716 W · 650 L | +51.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…959bbacked Yes | 32c | 316$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.88 | 123 | 31.7%39 W · 84 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e52…9078backed Yes | 33c | 300$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.87 | 122 | 39.3%48 W · 74 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…8aeabacked No | 60c | 286.46$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.67 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Yes | 39c | 258$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.74 | 175 | 42.3%74 W · 101 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 40c | 213.37$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.62 | 849 | 43.8%372 W · 477 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed No | 67c | 212$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.97 | 270 | 50.7%137 W · 133 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 62c | 201.96$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.68 | 398 | 53%211 W · 187 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 58c | 162.99$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.07 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 56c | 155.99$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.35 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1c5…c346backed Yes | 43c | 154.91$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.91 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0713…dd69backed No | 66c | 150$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53f7…2544backed Yes | 44c | 129.55$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.55 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +5.2wins | +0.15per pick | 37cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe0bd…b7f6backed Yes | 40c | 120.3$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e85…443ebacked No | 57c | 99.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.99 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed No | 61c | 99.95$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.97 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9b…829ebacked Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 143 | 52.4%75 W · 68 L | +15.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x56e6…45e9backed No | 62c | 59.51$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fba…9815backed Yes | 43c | 53.49$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.49 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe09c…f300backed Yes | 35c | 50.23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.65 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…01a4backed Yes | 39c | 48.72$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.72 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 59c | 46$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.16 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4915…60f2backed Yes | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +3.2wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb371…5faebacked Yes | 44c | 39.52$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.13 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 32c | 31.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.26 | 716 | 19.7%141 W · 575 L | -49.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3a…d5b0backed Yes | 44c | 28.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a75…9d4fbacked No | 60c | 26.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d70…fdd9backed No | 61c | 24.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 57c | 23.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 1,444 | 56.4%815 W · 629 L | +51.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 66c | 17.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 212 | 66.5%141 W · 71 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CS Independiente Rivadavia win on 2026-02-09?this page
- Will AA Estudiantes vs. CS Independiente Rivadavia end in a draw?No won
- Will AA Estudiantes win on 2026-02-09?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.