TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

Game Handicap: EDG (-1.5) vs ThunderTalk Gaming (+1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
ThunderTalk Gamingof EDward Gaming, ThunderTalk Gaming
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$8,490
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$10,837

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,490 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xda3a…381fbacked EDward Gaming40c1,838$735 inLost-$735.091,48550.1%744 W · 741 L+67.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+5.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed EDward Gaming37c1,103$408 inLost-$408.141,82745.6%834 W · 993 L+26.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1311…d450backed ThunderTalk Gaming60c1,000$600 inWon+$40031337.7%118 W · 195 L-15.1wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-17.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x40ce…bf90backed ThunderTalk Gaming62c999.92$620 inWon+$379.971,15156%644 W · 507 L+25.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1136…0c2ebacked EDward Gaming38c883.08$336 inLost-$335.5714448.6%70 W · 74 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba38…e406backed ThunderTalk Gaming63c799.99$504 inWon+$2968558.8%50 W · 35 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x73da…b7acbacked ThunderTalk Gaming59c510.8$301 inWon+$209.4332457.7%187 W · 137 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x642c…21a7backed ThunderTalk Gaming50c419.99$211 inWon+$209.435054.6%191 W · 159 L+12.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x041b…d3ebbacked EDward Gaming50c400$200 inLost-$20028852.1%150 W · 138 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d5a…4289backed EDward Gaming41c358.98$147 inLost-$147.1844451.8%230 W · 214 L+9.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd83…7d7cbacked ThunderTalk Gaming60c333.33$200 inWon+$133.3321559.5%128 W · 87 L+7.1wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed ThunderTalk Gaming63c318.91$201 inWon+$117.7849847.2%235 W · 263 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed ThunderTalk Gaming63c316.77$200 inWon+$117.21,20743.5%525 W · 682 L-14.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-11%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93f4…ea90backed ThunderTalk Gaming60c308.12$183 inWon+$124.691,11049%544 W · 566 L+42.0wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc52…dfcebacked ThunderTalk Gaming60c300$180 inWon+$12020154.7%110 W · 91 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd4e3…d5f4backed EDward Gaming37c270.27$100 inLost-$1008440.5%34 W · 50 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-9.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc1a…6049backed EDward Gaming42c191.4$80 inLost-$808240.2%33 W · 49 L-5.1wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked EDward Gaming42c164.29$69 inLost-$6928253.5%151 W · 131 L+11.5wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+4.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed EDward Gaming39c159.57$62 inLost-$62.2316339.3%64 W · 99 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-8.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed ThunderTalk Gaming73c140$102 inWon+$37.82,49547.3%1,181 W · 1,314 L-32.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7ab…16d0backed EDward Gaming27c140$38 inLost-$37.81,17066.2%774 W · 396 L+69.6wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+5.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf095…58c6backed EDward Gaming41c97.56$40 inLost-$4032050%160 W · 160 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2307…3934backed ThunderTalk Gaming58c96.29$56 inWon+$40.4454353.8%292 W · 251 L+32.6wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+15.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5011…94b4backed ThunderTalk Gaming61c95.08$58 inWon+$37.0824835.1%87 W · 161 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xedf7…4003backed EDward Gaming39c55$21 inLost-$21.2574637.9%283 W · 463 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a5e…1a0dbacked EDward Gaming38c53.6$20 inLost-$20.372740.7%11 W · 16 L-3.4wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-35.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x349e…867bbacked EDward Gaming41c53.27$22 inLost-$21.8432053.8%172 W · 148 L+21.9wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+11.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed ThunderTalk Gaming58c52.01$30 inWon+$21.8460849.5%301 W · 307 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1ad…6979backed EDward Gaming38c52$20 inLost-$19.7686144.1%380 W · 481 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed ThunderTalk Gaming62c38$24 inWon+$14.4479745.8%365 W · 432 L-0.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7242…ac6fbacked ThunderTalk Gaming64c37.88$24 inWon+$13.6412145.5%55 W · 66 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd62d…02ccbacked ThunderTalk Gaming60c30$18 inWon+$1253955.1%297 W · 242 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf88b…0ed2backed ThunderTalk Gaming61c30$18 inWon+$11.711354%61 W · 52 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8f7…7eadbacked EDward Gaming40c25$10 inLost-$1018846.3%87 W · 101 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.