Tennis · resolved market
ITF Granby: Sara Saito vs Kayo Nishimura
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0cb609c33ea1c4df075a77105b64212dd52c43abb22a718a5a8943acc4ac45fc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sara Saitoof Sara Saito, Kayo Nishimura
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,859
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,146
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,859 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Sara Saito | 78c | 2,409$1,890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518.57 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Kayo Nishimura | 24c | 2,029$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.36 | 1,959 | 43.7%857 W · 1,102 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2c…b707backed Kayo Nishimura | 9c | 1,057$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.14 | 111 | 26.1%29 W · 82 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d74…f2abbacked Kayo Nishimura | 17c | 588.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 433 | 34.9%151 W · 282 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Kayo Nishimura | 14c | 299.1$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.24 | 272 | 31.3%85 W · 187 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc7d…2c2cbacked Kayo Nishimura | 17c | 264.35$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.44 | 108 | 29.6%32 W · 76 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b77…6ba1backed Kayo Nishimura | 36c | 99.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 67 | 28.4%19 W · 48 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…11a3backed Sara Saito | 61c | 65.57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.57 | 2,274 | 58%1,318 W · 956 L | -10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Kayo Nishimura | 39c | 65.57$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.57 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeea3…a6a2backed Kayo Nishimura | 29c | 65.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 3,068 | 57.3%1,757 W · 1,311 L | +173.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4eef…5275backed Sara Saito | 79c | 63.31$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 363 | 78.2%284 W · 79 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 77cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2be…af12backed Sara Saito | 52c | 61$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.28 | 2,032 | 46.9%952 W · 1,080 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc95d…d369backed Sara Saito | 64c | 58.79$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.37 | 170 | 50.6%86 W · 84 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Sara Saito | 61c | 26.43$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 2,561 | 63%1,613 W · 948 L | -10.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Kayo Nishimura | 39c | 26.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 1,588 | 47%746 W · 842 L | -24.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e20…5cf9backed Sara Saito | 77c | 18.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 355 | 55.5%197 W · 158 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.