Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Sonego (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0ce0da704501d38d43918761605c832980f4d79ae51799aa34ad04901fd47f44
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sheltonof Shelton, Sonego
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,028
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,513
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,028 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Shelton | 55c | 3,614$1,988 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,626.24 | 459 | 57.5%264 W · 195 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa266…67f7backed Sonego | 45c | 1,078$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Sonego | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 1,510 | 37.7%569 W · 941 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa213…6907backed Sonego | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc905…850bbacked Shelton | 56c | 972.51$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.51 | 357 | 55.5%198 W · 159 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Sonego | 45c | 599.99$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.3 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5858…dc6bbacked Sonego | 45c | 417.99$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.28 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Sonego | 45c | 412.57$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.93 | 2,174 | 36.9%802 W · 1,372 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Sonego | 44c | 407.45$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.78 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…34c0backed Shelton | 57c | 353.73$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.73 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Sonego | 44c | 324.99$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.73 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…7453backed Shelton | 56c | 232.14$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.14 | 154 | 40.9%63 W · 91 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Sonego | 44c | 227.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.94 | 689 | 35%241 W · 448 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd73a…0f4ebacked Shelton | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 159 | 56%89 W · 70 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed Sonego | 45c | 199.99$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97a1…d1eebacked Shelton | 55c | 198.18$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.18 | 230 | 47.4%109 W · 121 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca6…6a20backed Shelton | 54c | 186.91$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.91 | 325 | 54.2%176 W · 149 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52be…801ebacked Shelton | 57c | 176.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.41 | 307 | 49.8%153 W · 154 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4537…fd02backed Shelton | 53c | 141.51$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.51 | 389 | 51.9%202 W · 187 L | -16.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Sonego | 46c | 135.07$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.58 | 1,541 | 49.2%758 W · 783 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Sonego | 41c | 95.8$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.47 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe741…a9d1backed Shelton | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 259 | 48.6%126 W · 133 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f1d…2fb6backed Sonego | 47c | 90$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.3 | 1,556 | 42.4%660 W · 896 L | +20.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6d…bfc5backed Shelton | 56c | 89.07$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.53 | 311 | 53.1%165 W · 146 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae63…9dcdbacked Shelton | 59c | 85.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.05 | 205 | 52.2%107 W · 98 L | -10.0wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6add…6992backed Shelton | 55c | 70.91$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.91 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f6…2e01backed Sonego | 45c | 62$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 86 | 48.8%42 W · 44 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Sonego | 45c | 61.91$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.86 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbaa…59b8backed Shelton | 54c | 56.02$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 324 | 48.1%156 W · 168 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…3813backed Sonego | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 1,168 | 49.1%573 W · 595 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc19d…aea3backed Sonego | 44c | 40.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c8d…4f5cbacked Sonego | 51c | 32.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 130 | 40%52 W · 78 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce7…3150backed Sonego | 45c | 27.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 391 | 49.1%192 W · 199 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Sonego | 48c | 26.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Sonego (+1.5)this page
- Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo SonegoBen Shelton won
- Set 1 Winner: Shelton vs SonegoShelton won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.