Tennis · resolved market
US Open: Leandro Riedi vs Alex de Minaur
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0d1d953b527d4b2487c1e080917ee9b6d89fe6bafe96d26454b6c4d1499bf383
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Minaurof Riedi, Minaur
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $71,877
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $67,768
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,877 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb230…4193backed Riedi | 7c | 15,000$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,050 | 80 | 52.5%42 W · 38 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f09…4632backed Riedi | 7c | 12,500$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900.02 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61bf…647ebacked Riedi | 7c | 9,161$641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$641.29 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -3.6wins | -0.20per pick | 25cpaid | -89.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d0…5c32backed Riedi | 5c | 4,750$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 226 | 29.2%66 W · 160 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Riedi | 0c | 4,714$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…fa00backed Riedi | 7c | 4,000$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 159 | 57.2%91 W · 68 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Riedi | 6c | 3,509$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.53 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Riedi | 1c | 1,504$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 1,090 | 35.9%391 W · 699 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Riedi | 8c | 1,194$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c53…c9b0backed Riedi | 7c | 1,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | -5.0wins | -0.19per pick | 26cpaid | -77%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked Riedi | 7c | 900$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 127 | 37%47 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…c148backed Riedi | 7c | 600$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 157 | 24.8%39 W · 118 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Riedi | 8c | 600$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 296 | 34.1%101 W · 195 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Riedi | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e86…93c2backed Riedi | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca35…5b58backed Riedi | 7c | 367.13$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7256…30c9backed Riedi | 8c | 335.25$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.82 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccff…e845backed Riedi | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Riedi | 7c | 286$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Riedi | 7c | 282$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 1,107 | 42.8%474 W · 633 L | -20.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbaa…59b8backed Riedi | 8c | 276.25$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 324 | 48.1%156 W · 168 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Riedi | 6c | 259.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 512 | 43%220 W · 292 L | +14.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…7618backed Riedi | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 253 | 30%76 W · 177 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab6…cfecbacked Riedi | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 129 | 27.1%35 W · 94 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.