Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will FC Arouca win on 2026-01-24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0d263daf85e8a3689aa22b10b703950baa9586b41c0da101beeb0848f37662f2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,156
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,530
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,156 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa98c…1d4abacked Yes | 7c | 4,255$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 7c | 2,782$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.82 | 294 | 25.9%76 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 18c | 1,975$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.18 | 511 | 40.9%209 W · 302 L | -12.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 7c | 1,332$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.98 | 1,401 | 29.2%409 W · 992 L | -32.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 9c | 1,250$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.45 | 113 | 26.5%30 W · 83 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 9c | 1,103$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.26 | 1,467 | 48%704 W · 763 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfc…4f30backed Yes | 8c | 999.98$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97e0…8194backed Yes | 6c | 876.88$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.61 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…0dd9backed Yes | 6c | 800.39$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.23 | 98 | 11.2%11 W · 87 L | -5.6wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 9c | 730.68$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.2 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Yes | 8c | 643.3$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.46 | 473 | 25.4%120 W · 353 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 4c | 553$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 133 | 30.1%40 W · 93 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7643…fb95backed Yes | 8c | 499.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe889…d0c3backed Yes | 14c | 453.24$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f8a…cd17backed Yes | 12c | 402.32$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.72 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Yes | 7c | 291$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 490 | 46.9%230 W · 260 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Yes | 10c | 233.54$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 357 | 40.6%145 W · 212 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 13c | 230.7$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 892 | 58.2%519 W · 373 L | +58.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9db0…0f6abacked Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 104 | 35.6%37 W · 67 L | -8.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb6aa…3746backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 124 | 40.3%50 W · 74 L | +11.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x03dc…132abacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 582 | 29.2%170 W · 412 L | -19.5wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x588b…8593backed Yes | 12c | 172.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 57 | 28.1%16 W · 41 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 8c | 154.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 396 | 37.1%147 W · 249 L | -10.9wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 8c | 149.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 570 | 19.8%113 W · 457 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc30…a3aebacked Yes | 9c | 133.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 381 | 47.5%181 W · 200 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Yes | 11c | 110.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 146 | 28.1%41 W · 105 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfcf…6c9bbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Arouca win on 2026-01-24?this page
- Will FC Arouca vs. Sporting CP end in a draw?No won
- Will Sporting CP win on 2026-01-24?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.