Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will FC Arouca vs. Sporting CP end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x56eac1265c1d17e8ec0019c6498e09d39ae88c45a7f213d1cf379e1507284090
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,157
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,087
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,157 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 48c | 4,611$2,217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,217.2 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5677…2ce9backed No | 49c | 3,250$1,593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,657.5 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 57c | 2,537$1,449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,087.42 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 58c | 1,602$922 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$680.52 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc482…b505backed Yes | 68c | 1,462$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$998.7 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,141$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.26 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 10cpaid | +1,356.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 7c | 376.56$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.93 | 113 | 26.5%30 W · 83 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 15c | 353.27$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.33 | 294 | 25.9%76 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefef…94b8backed Yes | 13c | 320$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed No | 45c | 300$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 269 | 49.8%134 W · 135 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 28c | 235$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.92 | 133 | 30.1%40 W · 93 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 45c | 215$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.75 | 2,179 | 48%1,046 W · 1,133 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5995…3385backed Yes | 6c | 210.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6d…b3febacked No | 14c | 180$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 16cpaid | +271.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e2c…6aaebacked Yes | 15c | 178.74$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.81 | 71 | 15.5%11 W · 60 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7de…4d6dbacked No | 74c | 170$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.2 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | +5.8wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 212 | 56.6%120 W · 92 L | -10.2wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 72c | 160.63$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.05 | 853 | 40.1%342 W · 511 L | -12.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 55c | 150$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.57 | 511 | 40.9%209 W · 302 L | -12.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 13c | 149.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 570 | 19.8%113 W · 457 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83d0…c927backed Yes | 53c | 113.21$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +3.7wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +28%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3e…ef94backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed No | 37c | 96.24$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.21 | 93 | 25.8%24 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Yes | 32c | 92$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 1,240 | 39.2%486 W · 754 L | -35.3wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x588b…8593backed Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 57 | 28.1%16 W · 41 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2db3…667abacked Yes | 69c | 59.12$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.79 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 51c | 50.82$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 1,098 | 50.5%554 W · 544 L | -36.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x555f…7782backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 50 | 72%36 W · 14 L | +7.6wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc1…b159backed Yes | 51c | 49.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed No | 59c | 48.66$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.08 | 479 | 26.9%129 W · 350 L | -32.1wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 51c | 42.25$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 834 | 40.8%340 W · 494 L | -35.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf121…6903backed No | 53c | 36.46$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca73…b02ebacked No | 56c | 35.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d4…6297backed No | 34c | 35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.27 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…b505backed No | 65c | 34.93$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +3.9wins | +0.16per pick | 60cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9b…829ebacked Yes | 69c | 29.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 215 | 40.5%87 W · 128 L | -8.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 74c | 27.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 598 | 55.5%332 W · 266 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3552…0d65backed No | 53c | 22.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Arouca vs. Sporting CP end in a draw?this page
- Will FC Arouca win on 2026-01-24?No won
- Will Sporting CP win on 2026-01-24?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.