College Football · resolved market
Spread: California (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0d51ab1218280dc21e6884a9fe4f59245bf5327fe98e1cbf9fc809badd8cc6d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Stanfordof California, Stanford
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,325
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,323
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,325 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Stanford | 50c | 9,585$4,768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,816.57 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4335…fc2fbacked Stanford | 47c | 8,797$4,113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,684.31 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed California | 53c | 7,500$3,975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,975 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed California | 51c | 7,000$3,570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,569.56 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Stanford | 49c | 6,990$3,425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,564.76 | 588 | 50.2%295 W · 293 L | +23.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe7…2f3cbacked Stanford | 47c | 5,000$2,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,650 | 112 | 48.2%54 W · 58 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74d3…0332backed California | 53c | 5,000$2,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,650 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -4.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1433…56a0backed California | 51c | 4,972$2,536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,535.9 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed California | 49c | 3,832$1,890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,890.19 | 524 | 49.4%259 W · 265 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed California | 54c | 2,000$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080 | 385 | 46%177 W · 208 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Stanford | 47c | 1,200$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636 | 261 | 47.9%125 W · 136 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked California | 49c | 816.33$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 224 | 37.5%84 W · 140 L | -17.3wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked California | 51c | 757.1$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.12 | 381 | 42.5%162 W · 219 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…73e9backed Stanford | 49c | 755.1$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.1 | 134 | 44%59 W · 75 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3685…0123backed California | 55c | 380.91$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.5 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Stanford | 49c | 213.24$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.75 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed California | 54c | 190$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.6 | 568 | 44.5%253 W · 315 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Stanford | 50c | 146.97$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.36 | 659 | 45.2%298 W · 361 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x258e…d16cbacked California | 54c | 138.89$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 174 | 50%87 W · 87 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed California | 49c | 102$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Stanford | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bae…5d34backed California | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Stanford | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 142 | 54.9%78 W · 64 L | +12.3wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Stanford | 52c | 87$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.76 | 492 | 53.5%263 W · 229 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked California | 48c | 75$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed California | 55c | 63.64$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 167 | 50.3%84 W · 83 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a3…a380backed Stanford | 47c | 63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.39 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Stanford | 48c | 62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.24 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +21.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Stanford | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 241 | 57.3%138 W · 103 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5779…168dbacked California | 54c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 60 | 60%36 W · 24 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d3…ada0backed California | 54c | 33.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed California | 48c | 27.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 542 | 43.2%234 W · 308 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb780…e7a2backed California | 53c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 50cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c2…4992backed California | 49c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…9652backed Stanford | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 117 | 52.1%61 W · 56 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e78…fcb4backed California | 53c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked California | 53c | 18.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 219 | 41.6%91 W · 128 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: California (-3.5)this page
- California vs. StanfordStanford won
- Spread: California (-4.5)Stanford won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.