Asian League · resolved market
Will NEOM SC win on 2026-01-21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0d8bffb907edacc418d3230c07dfacf40f8a369cbbc3e3da16ab88871732b45d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,838
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,833
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,838 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked Yes | 20c | 9,815$1,963 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,963 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 73c | 7,749$5,619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,130.04 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x274f…fbf4backed No | 59c | 6,784$4,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,781.91 | 49 | 69.4%34 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12b9…3ec2backed Yes | 36c | 4,722$1,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,699.92 | 136 | 41.9%57 W · 79 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa510…4f4abacked No | 61c | 3,309$2,018 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,290.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf7…cf5cbacked No | 61c | 3,081$1,879 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,201.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 39c | 2,184$842 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$842.04 | 1,098 | 43.8%481 W · 617 L | -14.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86e5…c4b1backed Yes | 39c | 1,284$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e2…4e99backed Yes | 43c | 1,249$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537.07 | 78 | 37.2%29 W · 49 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd95a…c264backed Yes | 39c | 1,178$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d4…6a2abacked Yes | 39c | 1,115$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ca…1a46backed Yes | 39c | 1,037$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6f…de9dbacked Yes | 39c | 910$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…9b7abacked Yes | 39c | 866$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 36c | 633$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.88 | 93 | 25.8%24 W · 69 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 38c | 355.89$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.91 | 623 | 49.1%306 W · 317 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec5b…aff2backed No | 62c | 322.58$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.58 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc1…b159backed Yes | 54c | 250$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.42 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb327…0fccbacked Yes | 43c | 230.23$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4daa…6920backed Yes | 33c | 200$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3e…380cbacked No | 61c | 179.96$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.96 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Yes | 38c | 170.58$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.19 | 1,063 | 42%446 W · 617 L | -12.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes | 39c | 164.1$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 148 | 40.5%60 W · 88 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked No | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 125 | 50.4%63 W · 62 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 72c | 152.86$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.07 | 843 | 47.7%402 W · 441 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 7c | 151.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 928 | 35%325 W · 603 L | -22.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 40c | 134$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.6 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x604d…4608backed Yes | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Yes | 42c | 120$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 239 | 27.2%65 W · 174 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 42c | 106$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.52 | 531 | 48.8%259 W · 272 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5124…91bbbacked No | 56c | 98.69$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.42 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1e…d5dfbacked No | 62c | 94$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.72 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5140…9951backed Yes | 44c | 90.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 57c | 87.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 770 | 56.2%433 W · 337 L | +40.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Yes | 41c | 86.2$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.34 | 267 | 49.4%132 W · 135 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 334 | 52.7%176 W · 158 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Yes | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 75c | 57.88$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.47 | 626 | 52.6%329 W · 297 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 65c | 56$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.39 | 91 | 41.8%38 W · 53 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0d…8bcabacked Yes | 44c | 55.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed No | 75c | 52.52$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 294 | 25.2%74 W · 220 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f36…1a69backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 167 | 46.1%77 W · 90 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…8052backed Yes | 31c | 48.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Yes | 34c | 39.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…8528backed No | 61c | 38.89$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Yes | 43c | 27.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a23…97a7backed No | 59c | 17.17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 55 | 23.6%13 W · 42 L | -5.9wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 59c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 74 | 55.4%41 W · 33 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will NEOM SC win on 2026-01-21?this page
- Will Al Ettifaq Saudi Club vs. NEOM SC end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Al Ettifaq Saudi Club win on 2026-01-21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.