NFL · resolved market
Vikings vs. Raiders
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0d8cbc863ef16e86b99663877df5b7c636a76168ee3eb042a9a66967c4de150f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Vikingsof Vikings, Raiders
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,294
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,077
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,294 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6691…17cfbacked Raiders | 1c | 16,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 9cpaid | +1,566.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8297…1708backed Raiders | 1c | 12,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Vikings | 37c | 4,286$1,565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,721.39 | 186 | 45.7%85 W · 101 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9716…378abacked Vikings | 37c | 4,000$1,480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,520 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e4a…311cbacked Raiders | 63c | 3,821$2,407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,407.35 | 51 | 23.5%12 W · 39 L | -8.1wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…e17ebacked Vikings | 38c | 2,000$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,240 | 92 | 40.2%37 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Raiders | 63c | 1,111$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.93 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed Raiders | 64c | 383$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.12 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeddb…4700backed Vikings | 40c | 250$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +98.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed Raiders | 61c | 212.74$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.77 | 207 | 36.2%75 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2786…7b3fbacked Vikings | 38c | 200$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5f…7a25backed Raiders | 32c | 147.06$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.06 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x542c…f12bbacked Vikings | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 97 | 24.7%24 W · 73 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x216e…6501backed Vikings | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0328…d834backed Vikings | 39c | 90$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.9 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4b…1304backed Raiders | 63c | 80$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.4wins | -0.48per pick | 68cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x07ed…4d6abacked Vikings | 36c | 57$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.48 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b50…87fbbacked Vikings | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1d…b57fbacked Vikings | 40c | 49.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.99 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked Raiders | 60c | 49.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 128 | 43.8%56 W · 72 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d2e…7f93backed Raiders | 63c | 41$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c5…c9b5backed Raiders | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.