Tennis · resolved market
US Open: Hugo Gaston vs Shintaro Mochizuki
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0d9ce3408fe40e91dd8a1034e04432cd33d43b880664070f4f1efc19970c466b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mochizukiof Gaston, Mochizuki
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,451
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,540
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,451 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x95b8…47c9backed Gaston | 35c | 6,000$2,097 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,096.58 | 284 | 43%122 W · 162 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f8…56b6backed Mochizuki | 65c | 4,819$3,129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,689.93 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…a3c3backed Mochizuki | 65c | 1,693$1,102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$591.1 | 132 | 53.8%71 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…fa00backed Gaston | 37c | 675.81$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.05 | 159 | 57.2%91 W · 68 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Gaston | 37c | 636.28$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.42 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…d327backed Mochizuki | 63c | 600$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.63 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Mochizuki | 66c | 544.6$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.63 | 321 | 41.1%132 W · 189 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Gaston | 37c | 483.82$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.01 | 93 | 54.8%51 W · 42 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…460bbacked Gaston | 41c | 350$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143 | 183 | 38.8%71 W · 112 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Mochizuki | 59c | 338$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Mochizuki | 69c | 319.38$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.38 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Mochizuki | 59c | 300$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123 | 149 | 49%73 W · 76 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Gaston | 35c | 300$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 85 | 22.4%19 W · 66 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6466…4633backed Mochizuki | 70c | 284.26$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.28 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8239…ddd7backed Gaston | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +84%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Mochizuki | 62c | 162.01$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.01 | 383 | 56.9%218 W · 165 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Mochizuki | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Gaston | 38c | 138.71$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.71 | 364 | 40.9%149 W · 215 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Mochizuki | 75c | 138.15$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.78 | 178 | 33.1%59 W · 119 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cdc…7cddbacked Gaston | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +5.2wins | +0.18per pick | 34cpaid | +66.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfed6…a111backed Mochizuki | 63c | 124.52$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.07 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Gaston | 29c | 95.28$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.68 | 2,766 | 47.7%1,318 W · 1,448 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3168…6734backed Gaston | 44c | 90.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Mochizuki | 80c | 81.35$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.44 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd99…f375backed Mochizuki | 65c | 79.91$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.12 | 85 | 55.3%47 W · 38 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Mochizuki | 65c | 79$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b2…273bbacked Mochizuki | 65c | 75$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.62 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Gaston | 39c | 50.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 312 | 55.4%173 W · 139 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x285b…5231backed Mochizuki | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Mochizuki | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 295 | 53.2%157 W · 138 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…b172backed Gaston | 39c | 29.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5825…4ffbbacked Mochizuki | 67c | 26.12$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2b…5752backed Gaston | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 214 | 54.7%117 W · 97 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.