NHL · resolved market
Red Wings vs. Kings: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e0517d110236ba9467117a10de48fc7a57b0e5ad780af20664eac87c776cf5b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,375
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,318
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,375 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x281c…775ebacked Under | 58c | 2,257$1,309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,309.06 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 55cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f85…3d39backed Under | 56c | 2,100$1,176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,176 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8dcd…3823backed Under | 56c | 1,613$903 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$903.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc60…38fabacked Under | 58c | 1,398$811 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$810.84 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee9f…b842backed Under | 57c | 1,318$751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$751.26 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.36per pick | 50cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6664…321dbacked Over | 42c | 1,231$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$713.98 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.30per pick | 55cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x122a…8505backed Over | 43c | 1,203$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$685.71 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -37%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x132d…2f5dbacked Over | 42c | 1,136$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$658.88 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd47…a943backed Over | 42c | 1,121$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650.18 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 50cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53df…b886backed Over | 42c | 1,108$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$642.64 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 48cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20cc…9b8bbacked Under | 57c | 1,103$629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$628.71 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8210…2e9ebacked Under | 58c | 1,076$624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624.08 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d06…d786backed Over | 43c | 1,012$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.84 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7783…b1fdbacked Over | 42c | 956$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$554.48 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x195e…7807backed Over | 44c | 933$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +115.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40a0…385ebacked Over | 43c | 856$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.92 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 48cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Over | 42c | 852$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.16 | 588 | 41.8%246 W · 342 L | -20.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Under | 58c | 852$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.16 | 378 | 47.4%179 W · 199 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c5f…8fd7backed Under | 58c | 821$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.18 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67cf…e85fbacked Over | 43c | 798$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.86 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.37per pick | 48cpaid | +77.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2f24…279ebacked Under | 57c | 741$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.37 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd18…8a51backed Over | 44c | 722$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x888b…aa66backed Under | 57c | 707$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.99 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a7b…dbd0backed Over | 44c | 698$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.88 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 50cpaid | +104.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x328f…692abacked Over | 44c | 680$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 42c | 617.21$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.96 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed Under | 58c | 528.57$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.57 | 315 | 46.3%146 W · 169 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe52f…fa42backed Over | 44c | 444$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43f8…491bbacked Over | 44c | 236$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.16 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 47cpaid | +115.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 59c | 179.44$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.87 | 510 | 45.5%232 W · 278 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Over | 41c | 167.24$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.67 | 412 | 46.4%191 W · 221 L | -24.5wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5960…d692backed Under | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 457 | 56.2%257 W · 200 L | +19.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked Under | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 182 | 37.9%69 W · 113 L | +29.4wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +202.9%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Red Wings vs. Kings: O/U 6.5this page
- Red Wings vs. KingsRed Wings won
- Red Wings vs. Kings: O/U 5.5Over won
- Spread: Kings (-1.5)Red Wings won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.