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Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on August 23?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,156
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$7,727

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,156 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2c57…372dbacked Yes31c252.02$78 inLost-$77.851,61523.9%386 W · 1,229 L+13.7wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes24c150$37 inLost-$36.5862044%273 W · 347 L+25.3wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed No71c140.39$99 inWon+$41.112,20162.2%1,370 W · 831 L-0.5wins0.00per pick62cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95d3…6effbacked No73c133.41$97 inWon+$36.5553548.2%258 W · 277 L+21.6wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbbb7…a11abacked No73c108.55$79 inWon+$29.511,48857.3%853 W · 635 L+46.0wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7956…eba5backed Yes34c106.64$36 inLost-$361,08038%410 W · 670 L-5.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes26c94.12$24 inLost-$24.4848639.7%193 W · 293 L+21.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No64c80.32$52 inWon+$28.6910,95237.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L+432.6wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+16%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed No77c77.98$60 inWon+$18.265,62547.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L+76.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3eb…b529backed Yes25c69.43$17 inLost-$17.4161929.4%182 W · 437 L+8.1wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb69…06a9backed No73c68.62$50 inWon+$18.6215952.2%83 W · 76 L+8.7wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes23c67.61$16 inLost-$15.5758850.9%299 W · 289 L+10.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes30c67.01$20 inLost-$19.8420851.9%108 W · 100 L+14.2wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+15.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3990…06bebacked Yes28c62.05$17 inLost-$17.3737027.8%103 W · 267 L-0.8wins0.00per pick28cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d4b…66b0backed Yes23c61.73$14 inLost-$14.055812.1%7 W · 51 L-6.9wins-0.12per pick24cpaid-31.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x38a1…3154backed No74c60.85$45 inWon+$15.632,21574%1,638 W · 577 L+18.3wins+0.01per pick73cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed29…3024backed Yes20c60.39$12 inLost-$11.8927241.9%114 W · 158 L+15.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+12.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1d69…7a63backed Yes29c50$15 inLost-$14.51,31454%709 W · 605 L-26.1wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a83…497dbacked Yes27c50$14 inLost-$13.537434.8%130 W · 244 L+0.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes29c50$15 inLost-$14.546736.8%172 W · 295 L+1.5wins0.00per pick37cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes31c46$14 inLost-$14.2655238.8%214 W · 338 L+23.5wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+12.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x441a…e9c7backed Yes29c45.74$13 inLost-$13.2747845.2%216 W · 262 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-11.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7aa…ddd6backed No75c43.78$33 inWon+$10.821,69752.5%891 W · 806 L-42.5wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes25c40.18$10 inLost-$10.0548446.1%223 W · 261 L+45.0wins+0.09per pick37cpaid+16.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd654…2efebacked No76c26$20 inWon+$6.3642862.1%266 W · 162 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a93…24e0backed No75c25$19 inWon+$6.3441274.8%308 W · 104 L+10.5wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x41e6…66b7backed No76c25$19 inWon+$657158.1%332 W · 239 L-28.3wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-10.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No74c24.23$18 inWon+$6.4212,97520.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L-2,698.0wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-65.3%equal weight27-0.21 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No75c22.93$17 inWon+$5.719,96245.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L-309.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec6f…b34fbacked No74c20$15 inWon+$5.214262.7%89 W · 53 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xddba…e638backed No75c19$14 inWon+$4.7950462.3%314 W · 190 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b09…7e61backed No69c17.94$12 inWon+$5.56250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-27.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No76c15$11 inWon+$3.555,83660%3,502 W · 2,334 L-112.4wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb97…603bbacked No73c13.97$10 inWon+$3.757266.7%48 W · 24 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+14.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.