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Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on August 23?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,980
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,995

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,980 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x95d3…6effbacked Yes31c303.95$95 inLost-$95.1353548.2%258 W · 277 L+21.6wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c57…372dbacked Yes10c276.35$27 inLost-$27.161,61523.9%386 W · 1,229 L+13.7wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6fb…c038backed Yes32c270.43$86 inLost-$85.8663733.4%213 W · 424 L+24.0wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No73c165.72$120 inWon+$45.331,90155.9%1,062 W · 839 L-33.7wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed No70c142.07$99 inWon+$42.712,20162.2%1,370 W · 831 L-0.5wins0.00per pick62cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaddf…b8febacked No69c130.43$90 inWon+$40.4330967%207 W · 102 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b98…8595backed Yes10c123.63$12 inLost-$11.9931612.7%40 W · 276 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes26c111.66$29 inLost-$28.795,62547.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L+76.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No78c104.36$82 inWon+$22.815,00353.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L+31.9wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd11c…ff7dbacked No79c93.18$74 inWon+$19.3535648.6%173 W · 183 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes28c55.76$16 inLost-$15.5758850.9%299 W · 289 L+10.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b8c…e802backed Yes21c55.73$12 inLost-$11.7519336.3%70 W · 123 L+0.9wins0.00per pick36cpaid+14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes31c52$16 inLost-$16.029,96245.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L-309.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x28c1…b087backed Yes30c50$15 inLost-$1518722.5%42 W · 145 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a83…497dbacked Yes22c50$11 inLost-$1137434.8%130 W · 244 L+0.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1dc…48fabacked Yes28c41.67$12 inLost-$11.5514742.2%62 W · 85 L-10.3wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-17.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes34c39.5$13 inLost-$13.4343947.6%209 W · 230 L-16.8wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x58b9…e12fbacked No65c35$23 inWon+$12.2524349.4%120 W · 123 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd8e…aea4backed No69c30.85$21 inWon+$9.642,43479.4%1,933 W · 501 L+99.7wins+0.04per pick75cpaid+5.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0428…7d12backed No66c29.4$19 inWon+$9.931238.1%119 W · 193 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7aa…ddd6backed No68c21$14 inWon+$6.791,69752.5%891 W · 806 L-42.5wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No71c20$14 inWon+$5.83,20153.6%1,716 W · 1,485 L-101.7wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xddba…e638backed No68c19$13 inWon+$6.0750462.3%314 W · 190 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8759…d7eabacked No69c15$10 inWon+$4.652445.8%11 W · 13 L-3.5wins-0.15per pick60cpaid-24.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No73c14.09$10 inWon+$3.792,22356.1%1,247 W · 976 L+54.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.