CS2 · resolved market
FISSURE Playground 1: Complexity vs. BIG
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e29689c9a96b8c3a3c58555a5d4b30c2aeadb8e1b4dc0361cdea0524eb4c126
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Complexityof Complexity, BIG
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,651
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,835
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,651 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed Complexity | 57c | 10,689$6,093 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,596.32 | 216 | 45.4%98 W · 118 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee03…3eeabacked BIG | 43c | 9,874$4,251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,251.2 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +5.7wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe85e…2aebbacked BIG | 38c | 1,984$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f78…68a4backed BIG | 13c | 1,700$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.82 | 85 | 4.7%4 W · 81 L | -8.5wins | -0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -84.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b0…4f5cbacked Complexity | 57c | 1,263$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543.16 | 87 | 36.8%32 W · 55 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…d327backed BIG | 43c | 1,248$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538.99 | 186 | 50%93 W · 93 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Complexity | 45c | 1,130$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$623.62 | 103 | 48.5%50 W · 53 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94a1…ec2fbacked Complexity | 52c | 1,120$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$535.4 | 163 | 57.1%93 W · 70 L | +14.1wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb950…4dd4backed BIG | 42c | 993.95$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.52 | 567 | 38.8%220 W · 347 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed BIG | 46c | 979.16$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.52 | 1,259 | 42.5%535 W · 724 L | +20.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda10…ffeabacked BIG | 48c | 786.27$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.89 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed Complexity | 53c | 751.79$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.12 | 116 | 54.3%63 W · 53 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed BIG | 49c | 613.27$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.5 | 131 | 46.6%61 W · 70 L | -8.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e67…91b0backed Complexity | 28c | 500$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2a…2aaebacked BIG | 52c | 447.15$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.78 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a37…869bbacked Complexity | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.14 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…7465backed Complexity | 70c | 245.23$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.18 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x476b…8a58backed BIG | 46c | 222$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.12 | 420 | 57.1%240 W · 180 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d5…9562backed BIG | 39c | 200$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Complexity | 57c | 171.65$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.65 | 234 | 54.7%128 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Complexity | 8c | 170.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.44 | 1,500 | 9.9%148 W · 1,352 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…fbf0backed Complexity | 52c | 78.14$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.51 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb78…3acfbacked BIG | 47c | 40.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f39…27a5backed Complexity | 47c | 33.06$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.56 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef7…bd03backed Complexity | 58c | 26.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.7wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +91.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.