Bundesliga · resolved market
DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. VfL Bochum: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e3616aa966abef2426e07cbbe2068d4697cc10d464d945926c8fef2771aeafb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,278
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,655
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,278 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 57c | 2,394$1,364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,030.11 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Over | 45c | 2,000$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 36c | 1,856$672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$672.17 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 58c | 1,353$778 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$574.65 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f7…0c5abacked Over | 49c | 675.78$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.14 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 53c | 505$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.9 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…e171backed Under | 55c | 194.15$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.37 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Over | 59c | 106.35$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.75 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1744…b131backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.36per pick | 50cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 36c | 97.18$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.67 | 222 | 21.6%48 W · 174 L | -34.2wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x473e…c0f6backed Over | 47c | 90.75$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.97 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 40cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 116 | 35.3%41 W · 75 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 40c | 80.59$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.64 | 152 | 44.1%67 W · 85 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 52c | 74.12$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.35 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Over | 47c | 64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3169…6dccbacked Under | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 55c | 46.53$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.94 | 213 | 55.4%118 W · 95 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d30…077dbacked Over | 60c | 41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f46…1db8backed Under | 40c | 37.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.7 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x133b…5856backed Over | 52c | 37.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Under | 42c | 36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.88 | 82 | 24.4%20 W · 62 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 40c | 33.72$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.23 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…a2d7backed Over | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 205 | 40%82 W · 123 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72ee…a848backed Over | 55c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 115 | 56.5%65 W · 50 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb3…9858backed Over | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Over | 61c | 17.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 271 | 38.4%104 W · 167 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. VfL Bochum: O/U 2.5this page
- DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. VfL Bochum: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. VfL Bochum: O/U 1.5Over won
- DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. VfL Bochum: O/U 3.5Under won
- DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. VfL Bochum: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: DSC Arminia Bielefeld (-2.5)VfL Bochum won
- Spread: VfL Bochum (-2.5)DSC Arminia Bielefeld won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.