Europa Conference League · resolved market
FC Lugano vs. KF Dukagjini Klinë: FC Lugano O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e4254513e16c7111aa40de3abcfddd5c449ac3e282ea41ace4d0f59cce93660
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,164
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,163
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,164 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Over | 52c | 1,744$913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$913.46 | 973 | 46%448 W · 525 L | -4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 48c | 587.77$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.46 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 47c | 319$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.07 | 880 | 48.2%424 W · 456 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 47c | 319$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.07 | 1,022 | 47.5%485 W · 537 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 48c | 312$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.24 | 1,316 | 50.8%668 W · 648 L | +33.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 54c | 174.98$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.74 | 814 | 40.5%330 W · 484 L | -21.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Under | 49c | 153.73$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.94 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Under | 46c | 111.46$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.19 | 155 | 44.5%69 W · 86 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde24…2b2fbacked Under | 47c | 109.06$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.8 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 778 | 55%428 W · 350 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 60c | 36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 55c | 35.32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 793 | 54.2%430 W · 363 L | +17.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a55…a82abacked Over | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a60…7b81backed Over | 71c | 25.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57b2…9da2backed Over | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Lugano vs. KF Dukagjini Klinë: FC Lugano O/U 2.5this page
- FC Lugano vs. KF Dukagjini Klinë: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- FC Lugano vs. KF Dukagjini Klinë: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- FC Lugano vs. KF Dukagjini Klinë: FC Lugano O/U 1.5Under won
- FC Lugano vs. KF Dukagjini Klinë: O/U 1.5Under won
- FC Lugano vs. KF Dukagjini Klinë: O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Lugano vs. KF Dukagjini Klinë: O/U 3.5Under won
- FC Lugano vs. KF Dukagjini Klinë: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC Lugano (-1.5)KF Dukagjini Klinë won
- Spread: FC Lugano (-2.5)KF Dukagjini Klinë won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.