Europa Conference League · resolved market
FC Lugano vs. KF Dukagjini Klinë: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x11f28537d0fa7fc23b3c322f7024656ac1e981b572959d2b6b5c2a5878ae4a8a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,298
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,614
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,298 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x191f…4a8dbacked Under | 36c | 1,836$654 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,181.6 | 174 | 46%80 W · 94 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0852…655cbacked Over | 21c | 724.24$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.97 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 60c | 581.72$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.96 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 64c | 527.4$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.39 | 169 | 40.2%68 W · 101 L | -11.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 33c | 443.47$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.68 | 814 | 40.5%330 W · 484 L | -21.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bab…746ebacked Over | 66c | 395.56$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 29c | 313.98$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.44 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Over | 43c | 300$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 32c | 298.19$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.19 | 638 | 57.2%365 W · 273 L | +35.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 21c | 290.48$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 179 | 41.9%75 W · 104 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 41c | 275.54$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.85 | 501 | 54.7%274 W · 227 L | +20.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Over | 61c | 271.69$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.73 | 973 | 46%448 W · 525 L | -4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Under | 38c | 143.11$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.73 | 123 | 55.3%68 W · 55 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39b2…157cbacked Over | 75c | 104.89$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.67 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x123f…8d5fbacked Over | 51c | 96.15$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.04 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d4b…802bbacked Under | 21c | 95.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.86 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +7.3wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 37c | 92.01$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.81 | 655 | 49.8%326 W · 329 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05ab…bf47backed Over | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4496…97c0backed Over | 71c | 68.16$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x160a…43d3backed Over | 47c | 61.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Over | 33c | 60.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 103 | 44.7%46 W · 57 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 64c | 55.97$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.82 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66bf…07e8backed Over | 56c | 51.79$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 102 | 38.2%39 W · 63 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 21c | 51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.47 | 359 | 44.8%161 W · 198 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9620…674cbacked Under | 31c | 48.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 24c | 48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.36 | 453 | 48.3%219 W · 234 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 61c | 41.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.37 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 47c | 40.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 795 | 32.2%256 W · 539 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 28c | 37.04$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 1,033 | 46.1%476 W · 557 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Lugano vs. KF Dukagjini Klinë: O/U 2.5this page
- FC Lugano vs. KF Dukagjini Klinë: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- FC Lugano vs. KF Dukagjini Klinë: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- FC Lugano vs. KF Dukagjini Klinë: FC Lugano O/U 1.5Under won
- FC Lugano vs. KF Dukagjini Klinë: FC Lugano O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Lugano vs. KF Dukagjini Klinë: O/U 1.5Under won
- FC Lugano vs. KF Dukagjini Klinë: O/U 3.5Under won
- FC Lugano vs. KF Dukagjini Klinë: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC Lugano (-1.5)KF Dukagjini Klinë won
- Spread: FC Lugano (-2.5)KF Dukagjini Klinë won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.