Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Pipsqueak+4 - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e6529e47efdd0ac3f047d629bfeeb8eae1ea2d3952346e7740aa1eff7a2b18c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pipsqueak+4of Team Falcons, Pipsqueak+4
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,048
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,288
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,048 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 40c | 1,925$764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,161 | 897 | 49.6%445 W · 452 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 13c | 1,500$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,305 | 399 | 36.8%147 W · 252 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Pipsqueak+4 | 13c | 1,344$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,170.7 | 557 | 51.7%288 W · 269 L | +16.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29f9…e310backed Pipsqueak+4 | 67c | 965.06$642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.72 | 122 | 56.6%69 W · 53 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8330…b88fbacked Team Falcons | 31c | 824.78$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.06 | 83 | 30.1%25 W · 58 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Team Falcons | 48c | 776.18$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.51 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74a8…df59backed Pipsqueak+4 | 13c | 761.23$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$662.27 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f071backed Team Falcons | 46c | 753.47$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.83 | 344 | 68.9%237 W · 107 L | +26.3wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Team Falcons | 11c | 750$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.5 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc0…5f47backed Team Falcons | 11c | 600$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Pipsqueak+4 | 17c | 600$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498 | 491 | 33.6%165 W · 326 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…1bb9backed Pipsqueak+4 | 18c | 450.97$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.08 | 568 | 48.8%277 W · 291 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x728a…df69backed Pipsqueak+4 | 13c | 307.69$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.69 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd202…964dbacked Team Falcons | 20c | 306.91$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.69 | 62 | 6.5%4 W · 58 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0be2…d514backed Pipsqueak+4 | 24c | 300$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228 | 119 | 43.7%52 W · 67 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x073a…6f98backed Pipsqueak+4 | 59c | 292.71$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121 | 203 | 61.6%125 W · 78 L | +22.0wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +12%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x687c…8c91backed Team Falcons | 38c | 200$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40d2…312fbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 30c | 150$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b4f…ce1fbacked Team Falcons | 57c | 121.75$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.26 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbaed…9372backed Pipsqueak+4 | 36c | 119.28$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.34 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb07…0769backed Team Falcons | 10c | 119.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe48…5895backed Pipsqueak+4 | 17c | 114.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.41 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95e7…4152backed Pipsqueak+4 | 22c | 100.04$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.05 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -3.5wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Pipsqueak+4 | 14c | 100$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd99e…8102backed Team Falcons | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 11c | 92.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.02 | 702 | 36.6%257 W · 445 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb87…88d1backed Pipsqueak+4 | 15c | 68$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.8 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +98.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d67…cf38backed Pipsqueak+4 | 16c | 67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.28 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 44cpaid | +121.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9de0…d8b7backed Pipsqueak+4 | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Pipsqueak+4 - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Pipsqueak+4 (BO3)Team Falcons won
- Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Pipsqueak+4 - Game 1 WinnerTeam Falcons won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.