South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Deportivo Toluca FC win on 2026-02-13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e9a2007fb569a4fd593d675f1b9fb2e9ca4362af19de68502187c188c4d9bea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $84,358
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $107,151
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $84,358 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 19c | 8,556$1,584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,584.42 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12b9…3ec2backed Yes | 74c | 6,289$4,685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,604.45 | 308 | 41.2%127 W · 181 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 9c | 3,642$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.41 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…8aeabacked No | 25c | 2,905$712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$711.85 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 74c | 2,681$1,988 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$692.96 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Yes | 75c | 1,776$1,334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.96 | 127 | 36.2%46 W · 81 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 74c | 1,651$1,226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.52 | 357 | 58%207 W · 150 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 21c | 1,210$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.81 | 57 | 28.1%16 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Yes | 79c | 1,119$884 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.68 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6f…06c4backed No | 28c | 791.28$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.73 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 9c | 653.07$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.81 | 494 | 49%242 W · 252 L | +22.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 73c | 405.58$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.39 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 23c | 371.96$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.57 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 74c | 371$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.26 | 234 | 35%82 W · 152 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 20c | 312.82$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.56 | 398 | 53%211 W · 187 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005c…a987backed Yes | 74c | 300$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 127 | 41.7%53 W · 74 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x012d…9db6backed Yes | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ce6…de1fbacked No | 4c | 246.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2344…6ba3backed No | 8c | 191.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 76c | 184.31$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.83 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf60b…c18ebacked No | 24c | 182$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.6 | 213 | 45.1%96 W · 117 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5124…91bbbacked No | 24c | 149.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked No | 31c | 149.33$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.26 | 312 | 26.6%83 W · 229 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa383…a2f0backed No | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Yes | 69c | 146$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.26 | 88 | 42%37 W · 51 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d3…bb8ebacked Yes | 76c | 131.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.57 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6be…43c9backed Yes | 77c | 130.63$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.63 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 75c | 120$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.58 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…23c7backed Yes | 76c | 109.37$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.88 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…15efbacked No | 26c | 95.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 85 | 37.6%32 W · 53 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ae…106cbacked Yes | 72c | 67.38$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.87 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4549…0450backed No | 25c | 63.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x313c…61d9backed No | 27c | 46.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf876…8975backed Yes | 75c | 39.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Yes | 74c | 28.47$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 270 | 50.7%137 W · 133 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Yes | 74c | 27.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 84 | 52.4%44 W · 40 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xede1…8ad7backed Yes | 72c | 24.16$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d8…19c5backed Yes | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 49 | 71.4%35 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3003…f8c4backed Yes | 75c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Yes | 73c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 209 | 53.1%111 W · 98 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed Yes | 73c | 16.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 212 | 66.5%141 W · 71 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedc6…05dfbacked Yes | 74c | 16.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.27 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfacd…d470backed Yes | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.1 | 50 | 76%38 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 69cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Deportivo Toluca FC win on 2026-02-13?this page
- Will Club Tijuana win on 2026-02-13?No won
- Will Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Club Tijuana end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.