Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Kansas Jayhawks (-8.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0ebb981aefe375e925bda906251038fca6a7e8dacc32c7b2522ecd4d9a96407e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cincinnati Bearcatsof Kansas Jayhawks, Cincinnati Bearcats
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,218
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,164
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,218 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xabb8…bba3backed Cincinnati Bearcats | 65c | 23,959$15,497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,461.84 | 243 | 51.4%125 W · 118 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Kansas Jayhawks | 36c | 15,877$5,655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,654.56 | 231 | 49.8%115 W · 116 L | +14.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Kansas Jayhawks | 35c | 3,908$1,358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,358.18 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57e9…df05backed Kansas Jayhawks | 46c | 2,175$991 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$991.44 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Kansas Jayhawks | 45c | 1,415$637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$636.87 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Kansas Jayhawks | 25c | 1,142$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.61 | 1,420 | 43.9%623 W · 797 L | +8.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Cincinnati Bearcats | 47c | 1,014$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$537.61 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Cincinnati Bearcats | 50c | 750.72$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.35 | 277 | 55.2%153 W · 124 L | +19.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Cincinnati Bearcats | 52c | 668.75$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.8 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3edb…5280backed Kansas Jayhawks | 53c | 561.1$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.38 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | -5.9wins | -0.11per pick | 62cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Kansas Jayhawks | 25c | 264.25$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.06 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43e0…132abacked Kansas Jayhawks | 36c | 158.77$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.55 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4855…6a41backed Kansas Jayhawks | 53c | 126.13$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.41 | 326 | 52.8%172 W · 154 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82d0…60a1backed Kansas Jayhawks | 45c | 110.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.57 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…5326backed Kansas Jayhawks | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 852 | 48.8%416 W · 436 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a2d…4f43backed Kansas Jayhawks | 30c | 80$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1aa…071abacked Kansas Jayhawks | 50c | 79.3$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.65 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72b5…8b54backed Kansas Jayhawks | 33c | 39.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Kansas Jayhawks (-8.5)this page
- Cincinnati Bearcats vs. Kansas JayhawksCincinnati Bearcats won
- Cincinnati Bearcats vs. Kansas Jayhawks: O/U 138.5Over won
- Spread: Kansas Jayhawks (-10.5)Cincinnati Bearcats won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.