Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C or higher on April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0ed523216a3945d6faca54c4a78d69f521aa1624ba9e15ed1b4daf8b668963e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,601
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,874
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,601 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9337…4fc6backed No | 4c | 27,523$990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$990 | 81 | 48.1%39 W · 42 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f1…7da3backed Yes | 11c | 957$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$853.41 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +3.6wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +176.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 59c | 327$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.86 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 42c | 300$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 24c | 192.59$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.45 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 70c | 169.8$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.76 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae37…90f2backed No | 19c | 102.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9076…f6a4backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 18c | 95.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 28c | 95$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc118…18e2backed No | 17c | 90.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 153 | 46.4%71 W · 82 L | +26.2wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | +112.3%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8b35…b8f8backed Yes | 70c | 90$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 12c | 89.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc055…7d0abacked Yes | 74c | 76.5$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.93 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x707f…1090backed No | 18c | 74.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ea…6765backed No | 23c | 66.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1565…3a47backed Yes | 77c | 65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 39c | 61.7$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.64 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 65c | 55.73$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.56 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b98…925ebacked No | 35c | 50.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 138 | 42.8%59 W · 79 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +164.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9b…492abacked Yes | 73c | 44.02$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 173 | 65.3%113 W · 60 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4320…4a44backed No | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…95a7backed Yes | 76c | 39.53$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 240 | 29.2%70 W · 170 L | -15.8wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 29c | 35.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 69c | 33.92$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 57c | 32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87cc…da77backed Yes | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked Yes | 77c | 29.38$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…1e7bbacked Yes | 77c | 26.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 92 | 70.7%65 W · 27 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 77c | 26.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 80c | 23.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc377…593fbacked Yes | 79c | 19.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.04 | 139 | 64%89 W · 50 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C or higher on April 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 24°C on April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.