South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Fortaleza EC win on 2025-11-06?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0ed6b405f48e61c2dc78a1cd73ffff25afe8810e5b0e438c8b42f3f7b8e04e05
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,984
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,490
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,984 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed No | 18c | 25,000$4,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,500 | 316 | 43%136 W · 180 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 71c | 4,221$2,998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,222.57 | 506 | 61.3%310 W · 196 L | +20.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 28c | 4,050$1,134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,133.95 | 436 | 18.8%82 W · 354 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4c3…3e00backed Yes | 29c | 3,808$1,104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,104.3 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed No | 36c | 3,798$1,373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,424.88 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +9.7wins | +0.18per pick | 46cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xea2b…1fc6backed No | 72c | 3,667$2,640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,026.76 | 41 | 65.9%27 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ada…43b0backed Yes | 73c | 2,484$1,822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,822.24 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd461…1d6cbacked Yes | 62c | 1,324$820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$820 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb17e…22bebacked Yes | 76c | 727.26$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.56 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 72c | 682.53$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.31 | 266 | 59.8%159 W · 107 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd31c…dac9backed No | 40c | 669.99$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b04…6549backed Yes | 28c | 661.66$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 34c | 508.34$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.1 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 74c | 416.43$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.4 | 271 | 33.9%92 W · 179 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…7295backed Yes | 71c | 408.45$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b6…bc8abacked Yes | 68c | 293.8$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 72c | 292.34$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.14 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed No | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.27 | 91 | 56%51 W · 40 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 28c | 200$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe333…b1e4backed Yes | 60c | 183.33$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 64c | 155.03$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.33 | 636 | 44.7%284 W · 352 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked Yes | 28c | 140.88$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.45 | 332 | 51.8%172 W · 160 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed No | 31c | 129.03$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.03 | 402 | 42%169 W · 233 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc23d…82c8backed Yes | 59c | 125$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.75 | 300 | 48%144 W · 156 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc046…f138backed Yes | 29c | 103.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46f5…30bcbacked Yes | 30c | 100.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.44 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | -5.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa225…b903backed Yes | 60c | 88.33$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0c…2265backed Yes | 60c | 83.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -35%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66c6…e75bbacked Yes | 73c | 82.19$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17cd…c580backed Yes | 74c | 81.59$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8821…3914backed Yes | 28c | 78.54$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde17…68d2backed No | 70c | 74.19$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.39 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ef…ddaabacked Yes | 70c | 57.14$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 67cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed No | 41c | 50.85$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | -7.8wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x784b…aa7bbacked Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +41%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 53c | 38.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 226 | 52.7%119 W · 107 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked Yes | 39c | 30.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 64 | 32.8%21 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x486e…62c7backed No | 38c | 29.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b5…029dbacked Yes | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab4…9606backed Yes | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x641b…6116backed Yes | 80c | 14.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Fortaleza EC win on 2025-11-06?this page
- Will Ceará SC vs. Fortaleza EC end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Ceará SC win on 2025-11-06?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.