South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Ceará SC win on 2025-11-06?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd7440169008d6ffa9d8b0e7894eb5e29679a5ee34c8344c30997a3c7e43a1524
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $76,497
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $72,057
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,497 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 29c | 50,000$14,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,749.76 | 316 | 43%136 W · 180 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked No | 63c | 29,762$18,710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,052.61 | 63 | 63.5%40 W · 23 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb7…082dbacked Yes | 41c | 5,196$2,119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,118.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed No | 67c | 4,073$2,743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,329.24 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +9.7wins | +0.18per pick | 46cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked No | 59c | 3,456$2,039 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,416.96 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked No | 78c | 3,151$2,459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$692.62 | 332 | 51.8%172 W · 160 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec4f…a9babacked No | 61c | 1,736$1,059 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$677.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7346…f416backed Yes | 39c | 1,734$676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$676.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed Yes | 41c | 1,671$685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$684.95 | 75 | 72%54 W · 21 L | +6.7wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x341e…9b67backed Yes | 37c | 1,197$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 41c | 1,044$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.03 | 271 | 33.9%92 W · 179 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 68c | 916.49$626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.79 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed Yes | 14c | 714.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd31c…dac9backed Yes | 37c | 713$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.95 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 41c | 664$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.98 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ada…43b0backed Yes | 36c | 525$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.5 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc922…2618backed No | 59c | 500$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 41c | 464.72$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 58c | 442.5$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.88 | 506 | 61.3%310 W · 196 L | +20.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed No | 58c | 316.57$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.79 | 112 | 45.5%51 W · 61 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb893…bf4bbacked Yes | 35c | 300$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 102 | 42.2%43 W · 59 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…f2bcbacked No | 58c | 299.97$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.99 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57dd…6ab4backed Yes | 35c | 290$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 64c | 285.45$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.76 | 636 | 44.7%284 W · 352 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2149…3a74backed Yes | 29c | 277.62$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Yes | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 91 | 56%51 W · 40 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…e3febacked Yes | 36c | 222.22$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +82.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 41c | 210.23$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.19 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde17…68d2backed No | 62c | 199.71$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.36 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa2a…bac8backed Yes | 42c | 177.17$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 60c | 167.23$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.23 | 516 | 54.8%283 W · 233 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 41c | 150.87$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.86 | 162 | 34.6%56 W · 106 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b2…5f43backed Yes | 9c | 120$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f79…7ed4backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67e7…d7a9backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…3e9fbacked Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2816…0730backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fdd…69ebbacked Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8f…6b61backed No | 66c | 80.72$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.48 | 117 | 38.5%45 W · 72 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Yes | 42c | 66.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.13 | 402 | 42%169 W · 233 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d11…0c08backed Yes | 38c | 65.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd14c…c9f0backed Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad28…770cbacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed1d…327dbacked Yes | 41c | 48.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00c9…7708backed Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac0c…2551backed No | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8566…b1a5backed Yes | 40c | 39.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e88…bd30backed No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fcc…6df4backed Yes | 44c | 27.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 60c | 22.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 266 | 59.8%159 W · 107 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ceará SC win on 2025-11-06?this page
- Will Ceará SC vs. Fortaleza EC end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Fortaleza EC win on 2025-11-06?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.