MLB · resolved market
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0f3aa7acef4106c02e4245c5fffc9677466a2d13f38eda12c17323d9998ccf0f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,153
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,873
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,153 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9eca…5a59backed Under | 53c | 7,742$4,103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,638.74 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe74a…f1bfbacked Over | 47c | 5,000$2,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,350 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Over | 46c | 3,000$1,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,380 | 779 | 51.1%398 W · 381 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 47c | 1,905$886 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$886.39 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Over | 47c | 1,005$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.35 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 41c | 756.19$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.88 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29b0…3f3cbacked Over | 46c | 549.92$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.97 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dad…4855backed Over | 46c | 444.28$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.37 | 210 | 52.9%111 W · 99 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 47c | 438.93$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.1 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 52c | 308.38$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.11 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd38…99d4backed Under | 54c | 300$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 267 | 59.2%158 W · 109 L | +17.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 68c | 242.37$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.09 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacbe…85d4backed Over | 47c | 215$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.05 | 228 | 49.1%112 W · 116 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 54c | 207.54$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.47 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Over | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 827 | 41.1%340 W · 487 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 35c | 160$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.28 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 12c | 112$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Over | 47c | 106$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.82 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Over | 46c | 99.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 12c | 88.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 53c | 84.64$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.78 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 48c | 77$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.04 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Over | 46c | 66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ff…ec82backed Under | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 215 | 54.9%118 W · 97 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 46c | 58.62$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.12 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Over | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 219 | 44.7%98 W · 121 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05b7…c24abacked Over | 46c | 44.51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | -23.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 46c | 44.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x523c…2c05backed Under | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 130 | 53.1%69 W · 61 L | -11.0wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 54c | 39.94$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.37 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Under | 54c | 28.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.97 | 653 | 59.6%389 W · 264 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e49…7186backed Over | 47c | 27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5c…fb95backed Over | 47c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -5.9wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -29%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 48c | 22.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Under | 53c | 20.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 73c | 19.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 59c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 74c | 15.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5this page
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red SoxPhiladelphia Phillies won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 5.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red SoxYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.