Tennis · resolved market
Brisbane International: Reilly Opelka vs Dane Sweeny
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0f3bde42a84b16e71049dc7924d8e3c989d0bbd39cbf3493fe709b9f4bc5906f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Opelkaof Opelka, Sweeny
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $58,515
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $80,402
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,515 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Sweeny | 14c | 7,827$1,061 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,060.62 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Sweeny | 17c | 4,592$773 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$772.95 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Sweeny | 16c | 3,028$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.72 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3257…2f3bbacked Opelka | 62c | 2,000$1,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$760 | 443 | 60%266 W · 177 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6c9…7863backed Sweeny | 14c | 1,710$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6718…1ef9backed Opelka | 65c | 1,489$967 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48de…95babacked Sweeny | 44c | 1,041$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.75 | 625 | 45.4%284 W · 341 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Sweeny | 32c | 1,019$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.16 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Opelka | 60c | 913.13$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.25 | 279 | 44.1%123 W · 156 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae30…079ebacked Sweeny | 41c | 861.83$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353 | 416 | 45.4%189 W · 227 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5085…934cbacked Opelka | 63c | 838.5$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Sweeny | 16c | 711.54$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.97 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Sweeny | 36c | 568.5$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.88 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb893…bf4bbacked Sweeny | 39c | 516.75$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.88 | 632 | 47.6%301 W · 331 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe671…a682backed Sweeny | 37c | 500$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 576 | 45.5%262 W · 314 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Sweeny | 16c | 447.72$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.31 | 2,068 | 34.9%721 W · 1,347 L | -44.2wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf79a…56c2backed Opelka | 61c | 387.76$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.23 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +3.9wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f0f…a571backed Sweeny | 40c | 312.5$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 373 | 39.1%146 W · 227 L | -11.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…6f9abacked Sweeny | 38c | 282$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.16 | 930 | 55.8%519 W · 411 L | +23.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Sweeny | 14c | 281$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d07…0351backed Opelka | 62c | 280.21$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.48 | 138 | 44.2%61 W · 77 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Sweeny | 38c | 210$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.8 | 254 | 28%71 W · 183 L | -13.4wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…298cbacked Sweeny | 37c | 171.08$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd2…f9a6backed Opelka | 63c | 163.73$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.58 | 97 | 62.9%61 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5ba…fe83backed Sweeny | 7c | 150.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x991e…3190backed Sweeny | 40c | 150$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 36cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Opelka | 77c | 139$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.15 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Sweeny | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 421 | 41.8%176 W · 245 L | -12.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1607…79bebacked Sweeny | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 102 | 8.8%9 W · 93 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…23c7backed Sweeny | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 156 | 48.7%76 W · 80 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdac1…c3e1backed Sweeny | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | +6.8wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x96ec…fcc4backed Opelka | 63c | 99$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.63 | 213 | 46.5%99 W · 114 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb589…33d4backed Opelka | 17c | 90.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.97 | 108 | 15.7%17 W · 91 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +248.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb171…7d2bbacked Sweeny | 38c | 78.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 326 | 49.1%160 W · 166 L | -18.4wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Opelka | 59c | 76$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.16 | 1,809 | 43.8%793 W · 1,016 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2294…4cd3backed Sweeny | 38c | 64.24$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.41 | 147 | 44.2%65 W · 82 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70ac…0c7dbacked Sweeny | 23c | 62.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 2,537 | 53.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L | +61.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97e0…8194backed Sweeny | 35c | 61.54$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06fc…4fb6backed Sweeny | 37c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 110 | 54.5%60 W · 50 L | +10.6wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +27%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfac6…cea2backed Opelka | 74c | 54.3$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 68cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb9…f39abacked Opelka | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 606 | 61.2%371 W · 235 L | +20.7wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Opelka | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7790…e3a0backed Opelka | 66c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +3.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +90.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9c1c…b4f1backed Opelka | 63c | 39.84$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 181 | 66.9%121 W · 60 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…8917backed Opelka | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 76cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe12f…24d7backed Opelka | 63c | 34.92$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Sweeny | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…03ebbacked Opelka | 57c | 29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -6.0wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1a…b3b5backed Opelka | 62c | 27.58$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9f…047ebacked Opelka | 79c | 25.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 70cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4291…b6bdbacked Opelka | 62c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79d1…4b66backed Opelka | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Brisbane International: Reilly Opelka vs Dane Sweenythis page
- Opelka vs. Sweeny: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Opelka vs SweenyOpelka won
- Set Handicap: Opelka (-1.5) vs Sweeny (+1.5)Opelka won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.