MLB · resolved market
Braves vs. Marlins: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0f4c90d9438259dabccca222a6c1266db5dd4e1ab4eaead336d4edd1e35624e5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,276
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,413
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,276 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1608…a990backed Over | 61c | 819.67$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.67 | 312 | 48.4%151 W · 161 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Under | 39c | 533.27$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.97 | 543 | 45.5%247 W · 296 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9375…1dbdbacked Over | 61c | 491.8$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.8 | 112 | 57.1%64 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55d8…b384backed Over | 61c | 491$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.49 | 577 | 44.7%258 W · 319 L | -6.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Under | 40c | 400$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 240 | 40.8%98 W · 142 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Under | 39c | 162.23$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.27 | 1,328 | 51.4%682 W · 646 L | +25.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x839a…0e05backed Under | 46c | 104.89$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Under | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 301 | 51.5%155 W · 146 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8d…3645backed Under | 46c | 96.37$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92ab…a4d1backed Under | 45c | 92.16$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1398…9329backed Under | 45c | 91.4$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d9e…5033backed Over | 60c | 81.47$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c6d…cd41backed Over | 61c | 77.25$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa771…12d9backed Under | 45c | 73.79$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97d5…f8dcbacked Under | 45c | 70.18$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65f9…db5ebacked Over | 60c | 65.26$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +65.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5fd…b794backed Over | 61c | 64.98$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52fd…481fbacked Over | 61c | 64.82$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b14…d17cbacked Over | 60c | 58.78$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…82a0backed Over | 60c | 58.77$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…93c5backed Over | 60c | 58.37$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab2…51d0backed Under | 46c | 53.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aca…44c3backed Over | 60c | 51.32$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x885a…0b49backed Over | 60c | 50.32$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdec9…1795backed Under | 46c | 41.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Braves vs. Marlins: O/U 7.5this page
- Braves vs. MarlinsBraves won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.