Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 36-37°F on May 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0f505fb2190342435fd92adf66d8dfa1af23b762f5b0c723ef7f14c887516e7e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,127
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,292
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,127 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 23c | 509.66$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.93 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 23c | 507.87$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.49 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5e…daebbacked Yes | 51c | 376.61$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.5 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -3.4wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 14c | 341.92$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.83 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 71c | 269.72$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.14 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbad0…a6e2backed No | 78c | 269.28$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.28 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 76c | 263$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc443…7444backed Yes | 56c | 249.66$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.77 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e7…04a6backed Yes | 21c | 187.93$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.35 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 77c | 150.64$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.99 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 25c | 150$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.87 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 15c | 142$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.78 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 43c | 138.57$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.48 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 80c | 118$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.71 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 24c | 105.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…2c6bbacked Yes | 19c | 98.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 188 | 14.4%27 W · 161 L | -14.7wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa785…acb6backed Yes | 31c | 92.64$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.67 | 77 | 27.3%21 W · 56 L | -8.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 25c | 90$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x537e…fa71backed Yes | 64c | 78.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 73.98$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.59 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 70c | 66.28$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 63.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked No | 72c | 62.49$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 65c | 60.15$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1add…a268backed Yes | 65c | 56.83$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.03 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 38c | 55.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.45 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 74c | 54.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.22 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed Yes | 34c | 52.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde55…dfc0backed Yes | 23c | 50.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c66…f4d3backed Yes | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 247 | 70%173 W · 74 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb70a…0883backed No | 50c | 49.59$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.94 | 78 | 66.7%52 W · 26 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 31c | 45.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…9161backed Yes | 27c | 44.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 61c | 44.39$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.86 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 76c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 64c | 32.17$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 43c | 30.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.26 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29d5…f8fdbacked Yes | 59c | 28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 64c | 27.64$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 72c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9e…8d54backed No | 77c | 25.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.87 | 276 | 69.2%191 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 64c | 25.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked Yes | 45c | 24.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76b3…7d44backed No | 74c | 23.66$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -16.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 74c | 22.13$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8337…2827backed No | 52c | 20.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3903…0f92backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 55c | 19.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 69c | 17.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad0d…8f33backed No | 76c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.02 | 121 | 74.4%90 W · 31 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 60c | 16.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb34d…e1bdbacked No | 79c | 12.94$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.67 | 81 | 64.2%52 W · 29 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 36-37°F on May 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be 33°F or below on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 34-35°F on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 38-39°F on May 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 40-41°F on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 42-43°F on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 44-45°F on May 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.