Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Arkansas vs. Texas A&M
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0f54ff09d73eb4a96144e45fc8e22f6ec40f7c888147255580829a1a185c338b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Texas A&Mof Arkansas, Texas A&M
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,316
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,731
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,316 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Arkansas | 19c | 3,834$728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$728.46 | 530 | 57.4%304 W · 226 L | +33.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x40e3…0787backed Arkansas | 35c | 755.76$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.91 | 284 | 45.1%128 W · 156 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadef…d0acbacked Texas A&M | 78c | 533.1$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.86 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +29%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed0e…b305backed Arkansas | 22c | 454.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Arkansas | 22c | 396.92$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.53 | 283 | 35%99 W · 184 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f26…e4c8backed Texas A&M | 62c | 193$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.34 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9b8c…28dbbacked Texas A&M | 50c | 164$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a81…30e8backed Arkansas | 51c | 125$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.75 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Arkansas | 23c | 122.17$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1328…e46ebacked Texas A&M | 49c | 110$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.1 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19f8…98f9backed Texas A&M | 79c | 102.53$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.53 | 484 | 62.8%304 W · 180 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89b3…6ed8backed Texas A&M | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 25 | 80%20 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2e…515cbacked Arkansas | 50c | 93$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf21a…08a2backed Texas A&M | 50c | 92$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Arkansas | 22c | 88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 348 | 42.8%149 W · 199 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d3…2425backed Texas A&M | 49c | 76$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.76 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x103d…770ebacked Arkansas | 21c | 71.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7441…233cbacked Arkansas | 53c | 70$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +42%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cee…d3afbacked Arkansas | 50c | 65$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b7…1f61backed Arkansas | 51c | 58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.58 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8af2…100fbacked Arkansas | 38c | 52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x583b…fe5dbacked Arkansas | 38c | 52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…6243backed Arkansas | 38c | 52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x419a…0fbebacked Arkansas | 51c | 51$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.01 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd781…a0babacked Arkansas | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9011…0e00backed Arkansas | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a98…9ad0backed Texas A&M | 50c | 49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadbd…7b97backed Texas A&M | 49c | 47$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.97 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +168%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49f7…046bbacked Texas A&M | 77c | 45.75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…1c7fbacked Arkansas | 52c | 36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40b…9899backed Texas A&M | 48c | 36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 60cpaid | +74.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd1…91d3backed Arkansas | 50c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ea…cbc5backed Texas A&M | 47c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2f…3136backed Arkansas | 51c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31ac…766abacked Texas A&M | 62c | 31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6dcebacked Texas A&M | 47c | 31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2993…981dbacked Texas A&M | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a19…6f09backed Texas A&M | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2291…19bebacked Arkansas | 51c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc836…1f3cbacked Texas A&M | 49c | 29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb36…a262backed Arkansas | 50c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc870…c8aebacked Texas A&M | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcec9…366dbacked Texas A&M | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b9…04acbacked Texas A&M | 47c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30e7…995bbacked Arkansas | 53c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c9…a709backed Arkansas | 53c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb61…f1dcbacked Arkansas | 53c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d8…c4e9backed Arkansas | 53c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf04…8dcebacked Arkansas | 50c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8cb…bdaabacked Arkansas | 51c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…4860backed Arkansas | 50c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc847…72b8backed Arkansas | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd4…8643backed Texas A&M | 77c | 14.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.29 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.