South American Leagues · resolved market
CF Monterrey vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0fac614eeb5eb9a88f77c3c4e318d0053d2178284a5fb53ff596b24131cde75f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,522
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,130
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,522 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6dc8…089abacked Over | 55c | 23,856$13,121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,120.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x176a…e672backed Under | 45c | 23,214$10,446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,767.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb41f…60b2backed Under | 45c | 22,483$10,117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,365.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac8…327abacked Over | 55c | 21,841$12,013 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,012.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35a6…ab4dbacked Over | 51c | 1,712$879 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$879.25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 60c | 1,641$978 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$662.88 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Over | 12c | 284.54$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.14 | 636 | 44.7%284 W · 352 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x241e…2de2backed Under | 58c | 223.12$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.01 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 62cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca7…ce3bbacked Under | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e46…25c2backed Over | 56c | 177.4$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x369e…d016backed Under | 64c | 165.63$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.63 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 44c | 163.4$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.45 | 266 | 59.8%159 W · 107 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Under | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…ef6abacked Over | 56c | 98.21$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x172d…6f3ebacked Over | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | -6.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…7d78backed Under | 66c | 74.33$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.39 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | -10.4wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -46%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 67c | 60.75$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf08b…9a7dbacked Under | 46c | 52.17$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.17 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa024…4929backed Under | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6878…bec2backed Over | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x426a…128bbacked Under | 55c | 36.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -26%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49ec…c4e5backed Under | 45c | 36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.29per pick | 58cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffac…d469backed Over | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…67b1backed Over | 55c | 33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x454a…4039backed Under | 45c | 31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4918…3db7backed Over | 55c | 29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71f6…e115backed Over | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 44c | 23.58$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.21 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CF Monterrey vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: O/U 2.5this page
- CF Monterrey vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- CF Monterrey vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- CF Monterrey vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Deportivo Toluca FC (-1.5)CF Monterrey won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.