Europa Conference League · resolved market
Mjällby AIF vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg: O/U 9.5 Total Corners
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0fd4e7301694b9d1290b2e3bb33070ce7499ddb73c05b8b4f70f74a44c60c2f0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $893
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $887
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $893 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe5b…8abcbacked Over | 53c | 377.09$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed Under | 48c | 195.23$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.89 | 182 | 52.7%96 W · 86 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 46c | 105.13$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.82 | 1,039 | 50%520 W · 519 L | +26.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Under | 50c | 73.82$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.91 | 973 | 46%448 W · 525 L | -4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 52c | 72.38$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.64 | 1,114 | 35.8%399 W · 715 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 46c | 66.67$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 778 | 55%428 W · 350 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a1…a119backed Over | 54c | 64.81$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 793 | 54.2%430 W · 363 L | +17.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed Under | 47c | 39.28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf1…d7febacked Under | 47c | 31.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.93 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +170.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60b1…8e7dbacked Under | 48c | 29.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.28 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 46c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 1,316 | 50.8%668 W · 648 L | +33.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 48c | 22.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 393 | 57.5%226 W · 167 L | +17.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x132a…79aebacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Mjällby AIF vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg: O/U 9.5 Total Cornersthis page
- Mjällby AIF vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total CornersUnder won
- Mjällby AIF vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg: O/U 10.5 Total CornersUnder won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.