Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Mainz reach the UEFA Europa Conference League semifinal?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0ff484c7cdcf8663527de2d3a6e79eb00e3c4cb988d43d1eaa4122faac51c8b4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,583
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,531
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,583 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ff4…d735backed Yes | 20c | 862$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.76 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 52c | 708.83$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.38 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Yes | 53c | 691$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.26 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda0f…f0e7backed No | 75c | 676.38$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.26 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +9.0wins | +0.19per pick | 42cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked No | 43c | 603$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.36 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbe…c4b7backed Yes | 44c | 444$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.36 | 89 | 47.2%42 W · 47 L | +7.5wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Yes | 60c | 410$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.3 | 1,316 | 50.8%668 W · 648 L | +33.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c80…77b7backed No | 76c | 344.29$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.96 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -5.2wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 64c | 322.28$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.09 | 1,022 | 47.5%485 W · 537 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 22c | 318$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.04 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Yes | 48c | 250$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 880 | 48.2%424 W · 456 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3892…4093backed Yes | 25c | 162.44$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.84 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfece…8b97backed Yes | 63c | 135$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.83 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 20c | 129$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 9cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed No | 64c | 118$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.48 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…9c4fbacked Yes | 70c | 112.42$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.73 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 58cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Yes | 45c | 110.85$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.09 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52bd…1a8abacked No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 35c | 37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.05 | 62 | 9.7%6 W · 56 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Mainz reach the UEFA Europa Conference League semifinal?this page
- Will AEK Athens reach the UEFA Europa Conference League semifinal?No won
- Will AZ Alkmaar reach the UEFA Europa Conference League semifinal?No won
- Will Crystal Palace reach the UEFA Europa Conference League semifinal?Yes won
- Will Fiorentina reach the UEFA Europa Conference League semifinal?No won
- Will Rayo Vallecano reach the UEFA Europa Conference League semifinal?Yes won
- Will Shakhtar Donetsk reach the UEFA Europa Conference League semifinal?Yes won
- Will Strasbourg reach the UEFA Europa Conference League semifinal?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.