WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1002fd8f401828dc9099e478bb00b1bdfe4df5b9e99d7203818a4fc01e3ecd11
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Los Angeles Sparksof Phoenix Mercury, Los Angeles Sparks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,767
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,788
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,767 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Los Angeles Sparks | 54c | 665.01$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.68 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Los Angeles Sparks | 47c | 603.83$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.03 | 344 | 48%165 W · 179 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc5b…5443backed Phoenix Mercury | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe641…0f63backed Phoenix Mercury | 53c | 529.97$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.89 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…cc6bbacked Phoenix Mercury | 54c | 371.06$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +4.6wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd589…27c2backed Phoenix Mercury | 53c | 358.32$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.82 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -6.3wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Los Angeles Sparks | 46c | 302.89$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.44 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Los Angeles Sparks | 47c | 300$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca4…aa92backed Phoenix Mercury | 53c | 283.02$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…99d0backed Los Angeles Sparks | 50c | 179.15$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Los Angeles Sparks | 50c | 151.6$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.8 | 851 | 58.4%497 W · 354 L | +70.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfb96…34b9backed Phoenix Mercury | 50c | 91.57$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe285…5754backed Phoenix Mercury | 50c | 87.1$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf9…3a59backed Phoenix Mercury | 53c | 55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.15 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55e7…4fb9backed Los Angeles Sparks | 47c | 42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 93 | 51.6%48 W · 45 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Los Angeles Sparks | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -5.4wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -32%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Phoenix Mercury | 51c | 19.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 137 | 45.3%62 W · 75 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-2.5)this page
- Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix MercuryLos Angeles Sparks won
- Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 173.5Over won
- Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 175.5Over won
- Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 176.5Over won
- Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 177.5Over won
- Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 178.5Over won
- Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-3.5)Los Angeles Sparks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.