WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9f166b0407da2ac82d6ae043989b010fe8e46676bf5139d468cd37f86a7a09e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Los Angeles Sparksof Phoenix Mercury, Los Angeles Sparks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,958
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,940
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,958 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Phoenix Mercury | 48c | 2,631$1,263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,262.98 | 462 | 47%217 W · 245 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Los Angeles Sparks | 52c | 2,340$1,217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,123.28 | 361 | 54%195 W · 166 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Los Angeles Sparks | 55c | 2,000$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$899.98 | 161 | 52.2%84 W · 77 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd81e…e3d0backed Phoenix Mercury | 45c | 1,180$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531.21 | 144 | 52.8%76 W · 68 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe94c…1edebacked Los Angeles Sparks | 54c | 966.44$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.44 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Phoenix Mercury | 39c | 893.59$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.56 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Phoenix Mercury | 47c | 810.9$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.41 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeef3…0547backed Los Angeles Sparks | 55c | 499.96$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.98 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32f1…c96ebacked Los Angeles Sparks | 52c | 440.46$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.45 | 113 | 49.6%56 W · 57 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12a2…c60dbacked Phoenix Mercury | 45c | 433.33$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad88…3c1ebacked Phoenix Mercury | 48c | 320$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.6 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Los Angeles Sparks | 67c | 315.5$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.96 | 101 | 44.6%45 W · 56 L | -13.5wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -25%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Los Angeles Sparks | 51c | 246.38$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.73 | 344 | 48%165 W · 179 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Phoenix Mercury | 48c | 200$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 121 | 44.6%54 W · 67 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Phoenix Mercury | 45c | 188.89$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8968…c3c1backed Phoenix Mercury | 46c | 178.41$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.8 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd589…27c2backed Phoenix Mercury | 48c | 162.94$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.21 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -6.3wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77a5…56f3backed Phoenix Mercury | 46c | 160.41$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ab…9723backed Los Angeles Sparks | 53c | 113.19$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.2 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba5c…c5edbacked Phoenix Mercury | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Los Angeles Sparks | 65c | 86.45$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.35 | 209 | 47.4%99 W · 110 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3297…43cdbacked Los Angeles Sparks | 54c | 81.97$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.71 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Los Angeles Sparks | 66c | 81$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.54 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c1e…e503backed Los Angeles Sparks | 54c | 78.44$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Los Angeles Sparks | 53c | 74.77$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.77 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccb7…0477backed Los Angeles Sparks | 52c | 70.27$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.73 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7102…9a7fbacked Phoenix Mercury | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa6…9742backed Phoenix Mercury | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1950…1bf4backed Los Angeles Sparks | 52c | 48.49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.27 | 138 | 50.7%70 W · 68 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Phoenix Mercury | 47c | 40.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 641 | 52%333 W · 308 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7307…b257backed Los Angeles Sparks | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Phoenix Mercury | 47c | 31.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 893 | 49.4%441 W · 452 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Los Angeles Sparks | 67c | 29.1$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Phoenix Mercury | 45c | 24.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 329 | 48.6%160 W · 169 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-3.5)this page
- Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix MercuryLos Angeles Sparks won
- Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 173.5Over won
- Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 175.5Over won
- Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 176.5Over won
- Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 177.5Over won
- Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 178.5Over won
- Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-2.5)Los Angeles Sparks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.