Tennis · resolved market
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Adam Walton vs Federico Bondioli
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1038a1df84b38c50028c22f92776666f12e14e7f7f22c91855ab8148f1f9a0b5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Adam Waltonof Adam Walton, Federico Bondioli
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,379
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,923
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,379 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5c50…e0c9backed Federico Bondioli | 8c | 25,187$1,953 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,953.08 | 421 | 31.6%133 W · 288 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Federico Bondioli | 19c | 2,351$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.7 | 4,407 | 52.3%2,304 W · 2,103 L | +66.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2c…2151backed Federico Bondioli | 5c | 2,308$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.3 | 389 | 11.6%45 W · 344 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x287d…38febacked Federico Bondioli | 9c | 2,109$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.44 | 374 | 21.9%82 W · 292 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Federico Bondioli | 19c | 1,878$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.86 | 3,397 | 48.6%1,652 W · 1,745 L | -47.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5213…6a35backed Federico Bondioli | 19c | 1,329$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.57 | 1,895 | 44.9%851 W · 1,044 L | +38.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Federico Bondioli | 19c | 1,026$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5,377 | 28.9%1,553 W · 3,824 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0267…7f7ebacked Federico Bondioli | 11c | 665.99$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.59 | 304 | 36.2%110 W · 194 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda2b…85febacked Federico Bondioli | 8c | 637.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 108 | 22.2%24 W · 84 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…5201backed Federico Bondioli | 20c | 452.53$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.53 | 1,454 | 28.5%414 W · 1,040 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x215b…5906backed Federico Bondioli | 7c | 422.97$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd034…eecebacked Federico Bondioli | 19c | 385$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.5 | 2,735 | 34%931 W · 1,804 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…fe2fbacked Federico Bondioli | 6c | 362$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.72 | 627 | 27.3%171 W · 456 L | -15.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x365f…706abacked Federico Bondioli | 6c | 330$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 1,852 | 46.6%863 W · 989 L | +19.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Federico Bondioli | 6c | 315$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 9,267 | 36.2%3,352 W · 5,915 L | -199.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad5…ccdebacked Federico Bondioli | 19c | 230$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.7 | 550 | 32.7%180 W · 370 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…5bdfbacked Federico Bondioli | 8c | 187.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 969 | 45.9%445 W · 524 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Federico Bondioli | 18c | 187.16$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.69 | 7,157 | 39.8%2,848 W · 4,309 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d2…4a24backed Federico Bondioli | 17c | 173.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.35 | 529 | 10%53 W · 476 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa42f…5f5abacked Federico Bondioli | 10c | 159.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 1,012 | 39.1%396 W · 616 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Federico Bondioli | 19c | 131.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 581 | 45.8%266 W · 315 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x985d…33c9backed Federico Bondioli | 19c | 128.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,300 | 36.9%480 W · 820 L | -34.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf970…f7f6backed Federico Bondioli | 19c | 106$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 2,571 | 36.4%937 W · 1,634 L | -21.8wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.