Premier League · resolved market
Stoke City FC vs. Watford FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x10807311d0fb7867ee75d62e23e830125adfe4da55193d93f5b5637481ffcbad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,221
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,221 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 56c | 5,980$3,345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,344.63 | 506 | 44.3%224 W · 282 L | -14.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 44c | 4,192$1,847 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,345.48 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 44c | 926.49$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518.91 | 2,550 | 47.8%1,218 W · 1,332 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 56c | 475.27$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.15 | 517 | 50.1%259 W · 258 L | +19.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Over | 41c | 261.1$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.05 | 131 | 32.1%42 W · 89 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb8…a6fabacked Over | 45c | 260$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143 | 157 | 72%113 W · 44 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4f…7b2dbacked Over | 45c | 161.31$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.72 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Over | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 118 | 50%59 W · 59 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 596 | 45.5%271 W · 325 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…402abacked Over | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 85 | 16.5%14 W · 71 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7f…7aecbacked Over | 33c | 89.65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.65 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x776c…5c84backed Under | 56c | 88.21$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 37c | 82$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.46 | 408 | 21.8%89 W · 319 L | -53.7wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Under | 56c | 80$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 278 | 46.4%129 W · 149 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 44c | 79$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.24 | 1,615 | 53%856 W · 759 L | +33.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 54c | 67.75$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.88 | 2,212 | 49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb51f…b7dbbacked Under | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Over | 44c | 65.81$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.85 | 109 | 49.5%54 W · 55 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 63c | 47.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.44 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6af…b5efbacked Over | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 82 | 63.4%52 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Over | 44c | 38.19$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.39 | 497 | 53.7%267 W · 230 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9db…dd44backed Under | 58c | 34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Over | 44c | 23.46$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.14 | 232 | 50.9%118 W · 114 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Stoke City FC vs. Watford FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Stoke City FC vs. Watford FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Stoke City FC vs. Watford FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Stoke City FC vs. Watford FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Stoke City FC vs. Watford FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.