Tennis · resolved market
Australian Open Women's: Oksana Selekhmeteva vs Ella Seidel
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x10963d06155019efd31b3f7d0706f90a095b4b64e0b6b7165c540de8d7d608f2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Selekhmetevaof Selekhmeteva, Seidel
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,737
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,838
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,737 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9d74…bb57backed Seidel | 0c | 11,205$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Selekhmeteva | 55c | 10,432$5,784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,647.64 | 150 | 48%72 W · 78 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Seidel | 44c | 6,861$3,019 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,018.84 | 1,090 | 35.9%391 W · 699 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e0…d457backed Seidel | 21c | 5,965$1,259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,258.92 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Seidel | 0c | 3,840$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…3b80backed Seidel | 44c | 900$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396 | 118 | 43.2%51 W · 67 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Selekhmeteva | 58c | 842.2$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.26 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1574…64c9backed Seidel | 45c | 665.99$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.7 | 476 | 39.1%186 W · 290 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Seidel | 44c | 438$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.94 | 1,028 | 33.6%345 W · 683 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Selekhmeteva | 66c | 432.03$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.61 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Seidel | 34c | 299.98$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 496 | 32.3%160 W · 336 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Seidel | 46c | 215.26$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 2,068 | 34.9%721 W · 1,347 L | -44.2wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc48a…c6c4backed Selekhmeteva | 52c | 204.2$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.06 | 55 | 14.5%8 W · 47 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Seidel | 44c | 166.47$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.24 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Seidel | 46c | 137$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.78 | 990 | 44.8%444 W · 546 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4042…0bdabacked Selekhmeteva | 55c | 98.18$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.18 | 982 | 40.1%394 W · 588 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…abbebacked Seidel | 24c | 97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.17 | 190 | 23.2%44 W · 146 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ab…f5c1backed Seidel | 40c | 77.85$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.14 | 219 | 49.3%108 W · 111 L | -10.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9371…3aecbacked Selekhmeteva | 76c | 69.13$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.63 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Seidel | 19c | 64.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafd4…4432backed Selekhmeteva | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Seidel | 43c | 49.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.49 | 1,212 | 33.1%401 W · 811 L | -16.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56e6…45e9backed Selekhmeteva | 54c | 47.49$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.85 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c3…079fbacked Selekhmeteva | 53c | 46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.62 | 893 | 64.4%575 W · 318 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb9…f39abacked Seidel | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 606 | 61.2%371 W · 235 L | +20.7wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc82b…e65abacked Seidel | 38c | 31.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb821…5cddbacked Selekhmeteva | 54c | 28.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.07 | 364 | 64.3%234 W · 130 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Australian Open Women's: Oksana Selekhmeteva vs Ella Seidelthis page
- Set 1 Winner: Selekhmeteva vs SeidelSelekhmeteva won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.