Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x10ea8787617df4391ab389ee33f6d623119ad6d8adea9eaf56703935cfe9d6d8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,984
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,756
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,984 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 25c | 345.85$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.82 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8a…bdedbacked No | 18c | 232.96$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.1 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf913…9e87backed No | 77c | 205.16$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.2 | 90 | 66.7%60 W · 30 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…7752backed Yes | 79c | 187.67$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.41 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d30…91d6backed No | 76c | 181.78$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.06 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 11c | 174.88$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.46 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x726e…aafbbacked Yes | 74c | 159.48$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.69 | 232 | 69%160 W · 72 L | +23.7wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5c…a240backed Yes | 76c | 159.47$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.98 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ad…c303backed Yes | 77c | 159.06$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.76 | 31 | 77.4%24 W · 7 L | +4.8wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +25%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe29f…cdd8backed Yes | 33c | 157.69$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.25 | 166 | 41%68 W · 98 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 34c | 126.69$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.52 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 17c | 125.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.38 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab38…acf6backed Yes | 35c | 124.46$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.09 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 45c | 123.41$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.17 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa50b…12c4backed Yes | 30c | 120.6$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.56 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 77c | 118.48$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.06 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 18c | 116.38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.08 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 67c | 109.98$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.69 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf9…1ffabacked Yes | 22c | 105$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.5 | 101 | 21.8%22 W · 79 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa61c…4dd6backed No | 48c | 100.19$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.55 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7615…308abacked No | 32c | 99.89$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.01 | 184 | 41.3%76 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed No | 69c | 73.82$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92c9…c500backed Yes | 34c | 73.26$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.26 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 16c | 72.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.25 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 31c | 61.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 26c | 59.79$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.05 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 22c | 55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.9 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83cd…e218backed Yes | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 77c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b9…47b6backed Yes | 36c | 43.34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.71 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3df9…2bddbacked No | 36c | 41.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 191 | 23.6%45 W · 146 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 47c | 40.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 66c | 37.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5239…4134backed Yes | 77c | 37.31$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 84 | 66.7%56 W · 28 L | +9.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +36%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 54c | 37.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 57c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 39c | 33.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 49c | 29.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9907…8a50backed Yes | 38c | 28.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe50e…45c5backed Yes | 75c | 27.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34c1…640abacked Yes | 53c | 22.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +141.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 54c | 22.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc878…a6f3backed No | 73c | 21.51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 79c | 20.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 75c | 20.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b94…fd0bbacked Yes | 77c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.