NBA · resolved market
Spread: Timberwolves (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x114b51578651c73f2bcb9d20390d90d3d9f99b3fe5dd6d3701128a90b6e68dc8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Timberwolvesof Timberwolves, Warriors
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,891
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,549
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,891 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Timberwolves | 52c | 13,102$6,813 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,288.95 | 478 | 48.1%230 W · 248 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Warriors | 48c | 10,000$4,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,800 | 299 | 57.2%171 W · 128 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Warriors | 48c | 2,437$1,166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,166.28 | 181 | 46.4%84 W · 97 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba5…aaf1backed Warriors | 50c | 1,309$654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$654.36 | 367 | 48.2%177 W · 190 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Warriors | 2c | 900$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabe9…8826backed Timberwolves | 52c | 720$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.6 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Warriors | 46c | 676.23$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.68 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x831b…eed5backed Timberwolves | 54c | 555.94$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.94 | 157 | 42.7%67 W · 90 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Warriors | 48c | 427.15$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.46 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Timberwolves | 50c | 310$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.55 | 706 | 40.8%288 W · 418 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a2…3b96backed Warriors | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44bc…c53ebacked Timberwolves | 53c | 250$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.5 | 191 | 49.7%95 W · 96 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe45d…f77ebacked Timberwolves | 53c | 204.58$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.15 | 253 | 36.8%93 W · 160 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x372b…2edabacked Warriors | 48c | 168.33$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.8 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21aa…aa43backed Warriors | 48c | 125$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x245b…00c5backed Timberwolves | 52c | 110$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.9 | 140 | 52.1%73 W · 67 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4919…0c56backed Timberwolves | 54c | 101.85$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.85 | 97 | 42.3%41 W · 56 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5902…59fabacked Warriors | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 148 | 45.9%68 W · 80 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Timberwolves | 52c | 66.98$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.13 | 105 | 51.4%54 W · 51 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf391…73c3backed Timberwolves | 52c | 42.31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.31 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +6.4wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…2486backed Timberwolves | 51c | 29.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.22 | 127 | 52%66 W · 61 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Warriors | 49c | 25.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Timberwolves (-4.5)this page
- Over 202.5Over won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-5.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-6.5)Timberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. WarriorsTimberwolves won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.